Rupee to open higher on robust India GDP, cooling US inflation

MUMBAI, Dec 1 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is likely to open higher on Friday following robust domestic economic data, while a separate report indicated U.S. inflation was cooling.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.33-83.34 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.3950 in the previous session.

The local currency was a significant underperformer compared to Asian peers in November, and it is expected that there is not much room for the rupee to appreciate.

Despite opening higher, the rupee is likely to edge lower through the session, with depreciation likely capped near 83.40, a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said.

India’s economy expanded by 7.6% in the September quarter, much better than the 6.8% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Economists raised their forecasts for India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year.

“The GDP print has surprised on the upside for three consecutive quarters, indicating underlying strength in certain pockets of the economy,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.

“We mark our F2024 GDP growth estimate to market, to 6.9% from 6.4%.”

U.S. core personal consumption expenditure inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, lower than 0.3% in September, while initial jobless claims ticked up, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates from May next year.

U.S. yields rose on Thursday despite the data, pushing the dollar index higher. The rise in yields was probably a reflection that the recent rally in bond prices may have been too quick, according to analysts.

Meanwhile, TV exit polls showed on Thursday that India’s main opposition Congress party is likely to win two of five state assembly elections while it is in close contest with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling nationalist party in two heartland states.

KEY INDICATORS:

** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.36; onshore one-month forward premium at 5.25 paisa

** Dollar index down at 103.33

** Brent crude futures down 0.6% at $80.4 per barrel

** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.33%

** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $517.7mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 29

** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $36.5mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 29

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.