The trend in rates has been very linear in the 2nd half of the month and the day-to-day changes have been getting smaller and smaller. On 5 of the last 6 business days, the average 30yr fixed rate has moved by less than 0.02% by the end of the day.
Conveniently, most of the gentle moves have been in a friendly direction. With rates already at 2 month lows last week, the result is gentle descent to slightly lower 2 month lows.
Today’s improvement followed the bond market’s reaction to comments from the Fed’s Chris Waller who said that the Fed could cut rates if inflation continued to decline for several months. Waller also reiterated and amplified his previous comments on the slower pace of economic growth.
Specifically, last month Waller said that we’d either need to see slower growth or face a resurgence of inflation. Today’s comments hearkened back, saying “something appears to be giving, and it’s the pace of the economy.”
There are no extremely high profile economic reports on tap this week, so the market is perhaps more willing to react to guidance from Fed speakers. It continues to be the case that next week’s economic data can have a much larger impact–especially Friday’s jobs report.
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