With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
HAPPENING TODAY — Jewish Insider: “An estimated 60,000 American supporters of Israel are set to pack the area from the Capitol’s West Front to the Capitol Reflecting Pool on Tuesday from 1 p.m.-3 p.m. for the March for Israel rally in Washington.” DHS has designated the march a Level 1 security event, ABC News reports.
Speakers include: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) and JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), and Reps. KATHY MANNING (D-N.C.) and CHRIS SMITH (R-N.J.), as well as Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. MICHAEL HERZOG and State Department special envoy DEBORAH LIPSTADT.
JOHNSON’S DEM BAILOUT — Don’t hold your breath, but it looks like Capitol Hill might actually get a holiday break this year. Both senior Democratic and GOP sources told Playbook last night that Speaker Johnson’s two-step continuing resolution is on track to pass the House when it comes to the floor later today.
This, despite the Biden White House initially blasting the proposal over the weekend, House GOP appropriators grousing for days about the idea of creating dual spending deadlines, and a hard-right revolt in recent days over the lack of spending cuts in the bill.
Of course, this is the House we’re talking about here, so maybe wait a couple hours before booking those plane tickets. But there appears to be a solid bipartisan coalition for Johnson’s plan, which funds four of the 12 annual spending bills until Jan. 19 and the rest until Feb. 2.
THE PLAN: Johnson will put his CR on the floor under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage. With Rep. GABE AMO (D-R.I.) getting sworn in just yesterday — welcome to Congress! — there are now 434 sitting lawmakers. If they all vote, Johnson’s magic number is 290.
For a frame of reference, consider the last CR, which passed Sept. 30, as a guide: Of the 335 lawmakers who supported that measure, 209 were Democrats and 126 were Republicans. We’ll likely see those numbers fluctuate today, but you can be certain of this: If this CR sails through, Johnson has Democrats to thank for it.
THE DEM POV: House Democratic leaders have kept their powder dry since Johnson unveiled his proposal Saturday. The company line yesterday went something like this: We haven’t reached any decisions on how we’ll tell members to vote; we’ll discuss the matter as a caucus on Tuesday morning then decide together.
But Democrats familiar with discussions among Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES’ leadership team told us that they expect senior Democrats to back the measure — along with a solid majority of the Democratic caucus.
Why? Because, they figure, what’s the alternative? Democrats shutting down the government because they don’t like a two-pronged deadline?
Sure, there are some Democrats who are concerned about this plan. In a private leadership meeting last night, some expressed regret that the CR doesn’t address the Women, Infants and Children nutrition program, which feeds millions of vulnerable families and is running out of money.
It’s also just not how Washington typically handles its business. Two deadlines, one Democratic source vented to us, was “fucking stupid.”
But senior Democrats agree neither of those reasons are justification for flirting with a shutdown that would hurt federal workers and disrupt a fragile economy. And they certainly don’t want to be blamed for such a fiasco.
What’s more, the spending levels are their own. The CR continues funding priorities that Democrats themselves enacted into law when they had majorities in Congress. And, Democrats privately noted to us, the Senate hasn’t introduced its own version of a CR — so House Democrats have nothing to point to as an alternative to support.
“It’s hard to say, ‘I can’t vote for this because of process,’” one senior Democrat said. “It could be worse. It doesn’t have poison-pill policy riders, and it does fund the government” at levels Democrats support.
To be sure, senior Democrats expect some progressives and appropriators to vote no — certainly more than the single Democrat who opposed the Sept. 30 CR. But it’s pretty telling that last night, the Democrats we spoke to seemed to be more annoyed with top Democratic appropriator Rep. ROSA DeLAURO (D-Conn.), who is railing against the CR on process grounds, than Johnson himself.
“That’s not a coherent reason to vote ‘no’ on a bill,” one said.
THE GOP POV: Back on Sept. 30, a majority of the majority, 126 Republicans, voted for then-Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s “clean” CR — and it still wasn’t enough to save McCarthy’s job. The hope among GOP leaders this time is that at least as many GOP members comes along, and perhaps even a few more, since the two-step CR was originally a Freedom Caucus idea.
Senior Republicans have been privately grateful for the relative silence from Jeffries & Co. The whip count right now is a “sliding scale,” as one senior GOP aide put it: The more Dems that embrace the stopgap, the more Republicans that will drop their support.
“We feel relatively confident, but there is a lot of uncertainty,” the aide said, expressing optimism that Johnson will deliver the GOP votes needed to pass his own measure.
Still, there’s no sugar-coating this for Johnson: This plan is going to disappoint many of his members and the base. It already has. And the optics aren’t exactly great: His first major legislative accomplishment signed into law will be extending funding priorities favored by NANCY PELOSI and CHUCK SCHUMER, a package that will in all likelihood be supported by more Democrats than Republicans.
Lucky for Johnson, many of the same conservatives who groused about McCarthy’s CR don’t feel the same animosity toward him. While the two situations have some superficial resemblance, the reality is that McCarthy had long been seen by his critics as someone who couldn’t keep his word. Johnson doesn’t have that baggage. At least, not yet.
Rep. ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.), who was among those who ousted McCarthy, put it this way to CNN’s Manu Raju: “At least [Johnson] doesn’t lie to us.”
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Rep. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) is up with a new launch video for his Senate campaign to unseat embattled Sen. BOB MENENDEZ. “After he said that he’s not resigning, that’s when I decided to step up and challenge him,” Kim says in the three-minute video, referencing Menendez. Watch the video
KNOWING SHUWANZA GOFF — WaPo’s Marisa Iati and Mariana Alfaro are out this morning with a profile of President JOE BIDEN’s new top congressional emissary: “A longtime aide to Rep. STENY H. HOYER (D-Md.), Goff often found herself wading into heated arguments on the House floor, earning a measure of trust from lawmakers on both sides for her ability to calm the waters.”
TUNE IN — Today, POLITICO is convening a Defense Summit that will touch on a host of the most pressing issues of this year, from the Israel-Hamas conflict to Russia’s continued war in Ukraine and Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) monthslong holds on military moves. Our colleagues have lined up a stellar set of speakers, which include Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.), House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH, Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL, Estonian PM KAJA KALLAS and many more. See the full agenda, speaker lineup and livestream
Related read: “5 things to watch at POLITICO’s Defense Summit,” by Joe Gould
On the Hill
The House will meet at 9 a.m.
The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.
3 things to watch …
- The rising probability of a CR into 2024 means a dwindling probability that Congress disposes of the $106 billion White House supplemental funding request — meaning Israel aid appears stuck until a longshot bipartisan Senate border policy negotiation is resolved. Playbook has learned that a group of Senate Republicans led by Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.) will highlight the impasse today at 11 a.m. by attempting a live unanimous consent request to send the $14 billion House-passed Israel aid bill, opposed by most Democrats, to Biden’s desk. A news conference will follow.
- Yesterday’s surprise announcement that the Supreme Court has adopted a code of ethics under fierce public pressure (more on that below) poses two dilemmas to Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill) and his Democratic colleagues: Do they push forward with a statutory ethics overhaul, putting real enforcement teeth in the code? Durbin sure seems to think so. But do they also press their subpoena fight with GOP court influencers HARLAN CROW and LEONARD LEO? Durbin told reporters yesterday the jury’s still out.
- Testimony from the head of the General Services Administration isn’t usually must-see TV. But you might want to tune into today’s 10 a.m. House Oversight hearing with Administrator ROBIN CARNAHAN, if only to watch Rep. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.) tear into the agency’s decision, announced last week, to move FBI headquarters to Maryland rather than Virginia. Expect the panel’s many conservative hard-liners, who oppose moving the FBI anywhere, to join in the pile-on.
At the White House
Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. At 10:10 a.m., the president will deliver remarks on the climate crisis. Just after 11, Biden will depart the White House en route to San Francisco, Calif., where he will arrive in the afternoon. Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will participate in a campaign reception in the evening.
2024 WATCH
IT’S BIDENOMICS, STUPID — A few months ago, a pair of progressives went to the White House to deliver a warning: “Bidenomics” was not the breakthrough message that the president and his reelection team hoped it would be — and they had the data to back it up, our colleague Adam Cancryn scoops.
“Perhaps most alarming, 7 out of 10 people surveyed believed the economy wasn’t getting better — even after they were explicitly told that inflation had eased and unemployment sat near record lows. That preface, designed specifically to persuade voters to brighten their view of the economy, did not seem to move them.”
The previously unreported meetings “included sitdowns with members of Biden’s inner circle, as well as top aides charged with shaping Biden’s political and policy strategy ahead of 2024,” and they “offer a window into a White House well aware that its economic message wasn’t resonating, even as it’s repeatedly dismissed such fears as overblown.”
And as if that warning wasn’t enough: “Forecasters who have successfully predicted the outcome of past presidential races based on the economy say the 2024 election will be a tight race — even though employment is high, inflation is easing and Americans continue to spend,” Victoria Guida and Katy O’Donnell report.
Related read: “In Arizona, Bad Feelings About the Economy Sour Some Voters on Biden,” by NYT’s Jack Healy
More top reads:
- RON DeSANTIS’ campaign is sending three top aides — deputy campaign manager DAVID POLYANSKY, national political director SAM COOPER and comms director ANDREW ROMEO — along with a host of other staffers to Iowa, our colleague Alex Isenstadt reports.
- Sen. TIM SCOTT’s (R-S.C.) abrupt exit from the 2024 race stunned his staff and GOP operatives alike, Natalie Allison reports, with more details from inside the campaign. Meanwhile, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Maya King report another stunning detail: “The man long expected to be the super PAC’s biggest donor, the billionaire LARRY ELLISON, wound up not giving anything to the group after Mr. Scott entered the race.”
- And now that Scott is out, the blitz is on to pick up the South Carolina senator’s key financial backers, WaPo’s Hannah Knowles and Meryl Kornfield report, noting that Trump and DeSantis held separate calls with Scott while NIKKI HALEY texted with her fellow Palmetto State native. ERIC LEVINE, a New York-based donor who was raising money for Scott, already has plans to co-host a high-end fundraiser for Haley, according to our colleague Sally Goldenberg.
- DON TAPIA, the U.S. ambassador to Jamaica under Trump, hinted earlier this year that he might put his money behind RON DeSANTIS. But that prospect is over now. Tapia tells The Messenger’s Marc Caputo that he’s for Trump. “[K]eep in mind, the world situation has changed,” Tapia told Caputo, referencing the Israel-Hamas conflict.
- CHRIS CHRISTIE has now reached the 80,000 donor threshold to appear in the fourth GOP presidential debate set for Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, Ala., NBC’s Emma Barnett and Bridget Bowman report.
TRUMP CARDS
TALE OF THE TAPE — Trump lawyer JENNA ELLIS told Georgia investigators that senior Trump White House official DAN SCAVINO told her after the 2020 election “that Donald Trump was ‘not going to leave’ the White House,” according to explosive portions of videos of the proffer sessions that Ellis and fellow attorney SIDNEY POWELL sat for, which were obtained by ABC’s Olivia Rubin and Will Steakin.
“Powell, meanwhile, explained to prosecutors her plans for seizing voting machines nationwide and claimed that she frequently communicated with Trump during her efforts to overturn the 2020 election — though both now claim she was never his attorney. In the session, Powell reiterated the false assertion that Trump won the election — but acknowledged in the video that she didn’t know much about election law to begin with.” Watch the clips
Meanwhile, WaPo’s Amy Gardner and Holly Bailey report on similar video obtained of KENNETH CHESEBRO, who “disclosed in his recorded statement that at a previously unreported White House meeting, he briefed Trump on election challenges in Arizona and summarized a memo in which he offered advice on assembling alternate slates of electors in key battlegrounds to cast ballots for Trump despite Biden’s victories in those states.”
JUDICIARY SQUARE
DECODING THE NEW CODE — The Supreme Court yesterday signed off on a formal ethics code for the first time in the institution’s long history, after much public outcry and congressional pressure over unreported luxury travel and influence campaigns aimed at the court.
“All nine justices endorsed the code released Monday,” our colleague Josh Gerstein writes. “It generally tracks existing rules for lower court judges but includes some special provisions addressing the Supreme Court’s ‘unique institutional setting.’”
But Josh also notes that the new policy “lacks some of the teeth that some advocates and scholars have proposed as potential reforms, opting for what amounts to self-enforcement.” He ticks down six of the biggest loopholes, ambiguities and unresolved questions, which include a two-step on spouses and an elastic prohibition on leaks. Read the SCOTUS code of conduct
CONGRESS
THE SANTOS CLAUSE — Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) has thus far dodged two efforts to oust him from the House, but the third time could be the charm if a long-awaited ethics report due this week delivers a damning result.
“The House Ethics Committee is slated to release the findings of its investigation into Santos regarding a slew of charges, including campaign finance fraud and bribery, by Friday. If it’s damning, as many expect, New York Republicans who have called for his removal are likely to move quickly against him,” our colleague Olivia Beavers reports.
While the most recent effort fell short of the requisite two-thirds vote on the House floor with other Republicans arguing against setting the precedent of expelling a member without a conviction, some members who protected Santos have indicated that the ethics report could change their minds.
Said Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), “He’ll be out. If he is found guilty by Ethics, he’s gone.”
More top reads:
- Eight House Republicans joined with Democrats to punt on an effort to impeach DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, sending Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE’s (R-Ga.) resolution to committee, Jordain Carney writes.
- D.C. AG BRIAN SCHWALB said yesterday that he won’t give congressional Republicans information about his investigation into whether judicial activist LEONARD LEO abused nonprofit tax laws, Heidi Przybyla reports.
- PAUL PELOSI recounted for a jury yesterday how a hulking conspiracy-driven man broke into his home and violently assaulted him last year in a brazen and violent search for his wife, Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), our colleague Dustin Gardiner reports from San Francisco.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “Hamas has command node under Al-Shifa hospital, U.S. official says,” by CNN’s Jake Tapper: “The news that U.S. intelligence assessments appear to back Israel’s claims comes as global attention is focused on the fighting around the hospital and reports suggest several patients, including children, have died in what the hospital’s director has called ‘catastrophic’ conditions.”
Meanwhile, Biden yesterday said his “hope and expectation is that there will be less intrusive action relative to hospitals” in remarks to reporters at the White House. “Biden said U.S. officials ‘remain in contact with the Israelis’ to secure a pause in the fighting to allow for the release of hostages held by Hamas and other militant groups,” per NYT’s Lisa Friedman.
Top-ed: “Israel and Hamas close in on a deal to free dozens of hostages,” by WaPo’s David Ignatius
MEDIAWATCH
ONE TO WATCH — “Ex-Fox News Reporter Claims Network Fired Him for Calling Out Jan. 6 Lies,” by The Daily Beast’s Justin Baragona: “JASON DONNER, a former reporter for Fox News, is suing the right-wing network for retaliation and discrimination, alleging the conservative cable giant fired him because he opposed Fox’s ‘false coverage of the January 6th insurrection.’ … Fox News did not immediately respond to a request for comment.”
Debbie Stabenow doesn’t want to be president of Michigan State.
Boris Johnson has some thoughts on Walmart.
IN MEMORIAM — “Jim Toole, cantankerous former owner of Capitol Hill Books, dies at 86,” by WaPo’s Harrison Smith: “Toole, a Navy rear admiral who commanded cruisers, destroyers and Mekong River patrol boats before taking charge of Capitol Hill Books, the Washington bookstore that became as well known for his endearingly grumpy presence at the front desk as for its stock of used and rare books, died Nov. 11 — Veterans Day — in the District. He was 86.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Sine Institute of Policy & Politics at American University is announcing its 2024 class of spring fellows: Larry Hogan, Thomas Nides, Daniella Senior, Manisha Singh, Kara Swisher and Patrice Willoughby. Sine is also bringing on NASA Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy and Jim Sciutto as distinguished lecturers.
— Adam Bozzi is launching Anticipate Public Affairs, a strategic comms and public affairs firm. He most recently was senior adviser for the Democratic staff of the House Administration Committee and is an End Citizens United, Michael Bennet and Jack Reed alum.
TRANSITIONS — Mike Abboud has joined Targeted Victory as a managing director on the public affairs team. He most recently was national press secretary for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political operation and is a Trump EPA alum. … Sarah Selip has relaunched the boutique conservative PR firm 917 Strategies. She most recently was comms director for Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) and is a Jody Hice alum. …
… Nicholas Kowalski is launching Vantage Point Public Affairs. He previously led Twenty20 Strategies. … Peter Colavito is joining Invest in Our Future as executive director. He previously was an adviser, working with the Service Employees International Union, Natural Resources Defense Council, the Open Society Foundations and the ACLU.
ENGAGED — Margaret Dancy, a nurse practitioner at Children’s National Hospital, and Ian O’Keefe, comms director for Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.), got engaged last week at the MLK Memorial Library Rooftop Garden. The couple had their first date at the nearby Compass Coffee on F Street. Pic … Another pic
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Travis Korson, SVP of Madison Strategies, and Emily Korson, a consultant with CGI Federal, on Friday welcomed Eleanor Elizabeth Korson, who came in at 8 lbs, 4 oz. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Greg Pence (R-Ind.) and Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) … Condoleezza Rice … Valerie Jarrett … Ben Rhodes … Tony Powell … New Hampshire Democratic Chair Ray Buckley … Jacob Freedman … Peter Lattman … Liz Morrison of No Labels … Sarah Binder … John Jameson … POLITICO’s Lauren Lanza … WaPo’s Paige Cunningham … Rachel Noerdlinger … Randolph Court of the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation … Ed Reno … Ashley Yehl Flanagan … Brianna Manzelli … Jonathan Landman … Jeff Danziger (8-0) … Bella Grabowski … Courtney Alexander … King Charles III
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