The general’s analysis is sobering. Ukraine and Russia, he said, have reached a “stupor,” fighting in trenches as in World War I, neither able to gain on the other. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new.” He said Ukraine needs a technological leap, calling for new air power, electronic warfare and counter-battery capability, and mine-breaching technology.
Adding to the gloom, a profile of President Volodymyr Zelensky in Time magazine reflected worry in Ukraine that the West is forsaking Kyiv before its forces can push back the Russian invasion. “The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’”
All is not lost militarily. Ukraine has opened a corridor for shipping grain, pushing back Russian naval forces with missile and drone strikes. In ground combat, Ukrainian forces have exacted an enormous toll on Russian armor and personnel. In battles for the town of Avdiivka last month, Russian casualties hit 900 on one day.
Still, there is a sense the war has stalled. “We need to pull ourselves together,” Mr. Zelensky said Monday in a televised address. He also told “Meet the Press,” “Our military are coming up with different plans, with different operations in order to move forward faster and to strike Russian Federation unexpectedly.”
The steady but deliberate pace of Western arms deliveries has frustrated Mr. Zelensky. Ukraine rightly fears it has been given enough to survive but not enough to win, in part because of President Biden’s concerns about escalation with Russia. Congress can boost Ukrainian morale and military performance by passing a large economic and military aid package in the coming weeks, sufficient to avoid stop-start disruptions in the year ahead. Despite the reluctance of some House Republicans, there remains a sizable majority in both chambers for such a package.
The United States and its allies should also work to frustrate the Kremlin’s growing circumvention of the cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil exports. The cap allows Western companies to ship, trade or insure Russian oil only if sold at or below the cap ― or else face penalties. But Russian oil companies and traders have built a shadow fleet of tankers to bypass the cap, and its biggest customers, China and India, don’t honor the cap, although they purchase Russian oil at a discount. Overall, Russian oil revenue rose by more than a quarter in October compared with the same month last year. The revenue will help Russia support the war effort. The West should continue to press sanctions on those who facilitate the shadow fleet.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is girding for a long war, and that is the real danger for Ukraine, dependent on outsiders for supplies and support. The budget moving through Russia’s parliament this month envisions a 70 percent increase in defense spending next year, accounting for nearly one-third of all public expenditure and nearly 6 percent of gross domestic product. Mr. Putin is clearly hoping to exhaust the West’s patience and Ukraine’s materiel and personnel reserves — perhaps also desiring to see former president Donald Trump elected and a weakening of U.S. willpower to keep supporting Ukraine.
In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield. That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the time comes. And that leverage means preserving Ukraine’s chance to survive and grow as a thriving European democracy, not a vassal of the Kremlin.
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