The elections were conducted under less than ideal circumstances, but, in a sense, they were “good enough” to allow popular will to prevail. “Poland’s parliamentary elections were characterized by record-high voter participation with a wide choice of political options and candidates able to campaign freely, but the campaign was tarnished by notable overlap between the ruling party’s messages and government information campaigns,” the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said. “Together with distorted and openly partisan coverage by the public broadcaster, this provided a clear advantage to the ruling party, undermining the democratic separation of state and party.” Yet with all those hindrances, the governing regime could not “rig” the results.
“What happened in Poland is proof that when pro-democracy forces cease their bickering and come together as a unified front, they can overcome wannabe authoritarians, even when they’re faced with an uneven playing field,” Uriel Epshtein, chief executive of the Renew Democracy Initiative, told me.
The extent of the victory of opposition forces cannot be underestimated. Anne Applebaum writes for the Atlantic:
Since first winning power democratically in 2015, the nationalist-conservative party Law and Justice, or PiS, has turned state television into a propaganda tube, used state companies to fund its political campaigns, and politicized state administration. In the run-up to this election, it altered electoral laws and even leaked top-secret military documents, manipulating their contents for electoral gain. Even so, the party appears to have won only just over a third of the vote. Three opposition parties will likely have a parliamentary majority. Barring unexpected surprises, and perhaps some attempts to block their victory, they will form a center-right/center-left coalition. Once again, Poles will have to slowly decentralize the state and rebuild their democracy.
This is a breath of fresh air on a continent where the political breeze has been blowing in authoritarians’ direction. “After democratic coalitions failed to defeat nationalist-conservative ruling parties in Hungary last year and in Turkey last May, and after elections in Israel brought a coalition of extremists to power, plenty of people feared that democratic change in Poland, too, was impossible,” Applebaum writes. The elections there defied expectations. Applebaum concludes: “The victory of the Polish opposition proves that autocratic populism can be defeated, even after an unfair election.” Putting it differently, freelance journalist Tomasz Oryński tweeted, “Poland begins turning back towards European values.”
The key to victory was not only the regime’s endemic corruption, persecution of LGBTQ+ Poles and antiabortion restrictions. (Notice how these go hand-in-hand in radical right-wing regimes.) Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk won on Sunday with an appeal to true patriotic values rooted in democratic participation, support for women’s self-determination and effective alignment with a broad coalition of parties from center-left to center-right.
Tusk’s declaration that “Poland has won, democracy has won. We have removed them from power!” should strike fear in the hearts of other right-wing authoritarians. Moreover, it leaves leaders such as Orban and even Vladimir Putin further isolated, promoting the consolidation of a pro-democratic alliance of Western powers forged in response to the war in Ukraine.
The Polish election is not an isolated event. In the United States, anti-authoritarian forces celebrating democratic values defeated right-wing authoritarian and, now, four-times-indicted Donald Trump in 2020. Earlier this year, opposition pro-democracy forces scored an impressive victory in Guatemala.
The battle to restore democracy, however, is not over. In Poland, the opposition must form a government. After that, institutions such as the central bank, the courts, the military and the media that remained under the regime’s thumb still could pose a threat to a new coalition government.
“But unlike Hungary, a far smaller country whose increasingly autocratic prime minister, Viktor Orban, has had 13 years to capture state structures, Poland, controlled by Mr. Kaczynski for eight years, has retained many features of a functioning democracy, a vibrant free press separate from state media and an economy not dominated by government cronies,” the New York Times reports.
The election holds several lessons that extend well beyond Poland. To begin with, right-wing populists can be their own worst enemy. Adept at destruction, they often lack the skills to govern. Their appeals to “traditional” or religious values often run afoul of contemporary attitudes while their own corruption undermines their claim to be the true voice of the people.
Second, if opposition forces can avoid infighting and coalesce around patriotic messaging, they can inspire an outpouring of civic engagement. Relatively small differences over policy need to be set aside to dislodge a formidable regime adept at stoking infighting.
Third, women are often at the forefront of pro-democracy movements because they are among those most harmed by misogynistic right-wing regimes. Keeping their interests and voices front and center is essential to defeating authoritarianism.
Above all, Poland reminds us that authoritarian regimes count on depression, resignation, cynicism and despair to disable opposition. They create a fog of disinformation and bombard the public with serial outrages, all designed to induce widespread compliance with a regime. If free people are to resist authoritarian repression, they must cultivate the habit of optimism.
Michael Abramowitz, the president of Freedom House, tells me, “This is a historic turnout in the face of an unfair election environment. It is a victory against anti-democratic forces in Poland. It’s also the case that it will take time to roll back the damage done by PiS to the country’s rule of law, judiciary, and state services, including restoring the editorial independence of the public broadcaster.” He adds, “The fight for democracy is not over in Poland — it is a long road ahead. But this is a consequential moment and a clear step in the direction of freedom for the Polish people.”
And with Poland’s example, pro-democracy forces around the world have additional reason to maintain hope.
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