McConnell (Ky.), the Senate Republican leader since 2007, has long been one of the canniest political operators in Washington. Yet a project that had his full backing — the bipartisan bill to toughen border security and provide aid to Ukraine and Israel — utterly collapsed when Trump insisted that the border crisis not be eased before the November election.
Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) adjourned the chamber Wednesday “to give our Republican colleagues the night to figure themselves out.” What they need is a little self-awareness: With few exceptions, such as Mitt Romney (Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), GOP senators are unwilling to do anything that might get them attacked by Trump.
Even McConnell, in the end, voted against the border bill he had championed. For a man so accustomed to being in command, it must have been a humiliating surrender.
Trump’s domination of the Republican base and the right-wing echo chamber is complete. Sen. James Lankford (Okla.), who helped negotiate the failed package and extracted unprecedented concessions on border security from Democrats in exchange for the vital Ukraine aid, spoke angrily on the Senate floor about the kind of pressure he has been under.
“I had a popular commentator,” Lankford said on Wednesday, “that told me flat-out, before they knew any of the contents of the bill … if you try to move a bill that solves the border crisis during this presidential year, I will do whatever I can to destroy you, because I do not want you to solve this during the presidential election.”
It has long been difficult to pass significant legislation during election years, but this should have been an exception. Republicans have spent months screaming about the crisis at the border, and Lankford, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, did exactly what his party’s leader asked him to do. What senator will raise his or her hand the next time McConnell has a task to assign?
The serious question now is how Congress manages to get even its most basic and essential work done with Trump effectively directing Republicans in both the House and Senate.
How will the government stay open and operational? The current stopgap funding measures are set to expire on March 1 and March 8. In the House, Johnson will surely have the usual Sisyphean travail of wrangling his MAGA nihilists and fiscal uber-hawks into supporting any reasonable funding extension. McConnell is usually a key figure in negotiations to avert a shutdown, and he has always had enough GOP votes in his pocket to ensure that a funding bill passes the Senate. But will those votes still be there when he asks for them? Or will Republican senators instead do whatever Leader Trump wants them to do?
McConnell did cobble together 17 GOP votes on Thursday in a procedural vote to advance a stand-alone foreign aid bill. This legislation, if ultimately approved, would provide $60 billion to help Ukraine resist Russia’s full-scale invasion and $14 billion for Israel in its war in Gaza.
Ukraine’s need for assistance is especially critical, and McConnell has tried to make it a priority. But Trump has been sharply critical of continued aid to the government in Kyiv, and Republican senators who favor it risk being targeted in all-caps screeds on Truth Social.
And the money for Ukraine faces even dimmer prospects in the House. Johnson consistently voted against Ukraine aid before becoming speaker, and MAGA loudmouths are taking an over-my-dead-body stance. If Johnson were to allow a Ukraine aid bill to come to the floor, I believe it could be passed by a bipartisan majority. But if Johnson relies on Democratic votes to defy Trump-cult doctrine, he will likely be ejected from his job as speaker.
No one knows from one day to the next what Republicans in the House and Senate are going to do. Maybe Johnson and McConnell should have a standing conference call with Trump to find out.
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