There have been many stories in recent days on the difficulties that the Israel Defense Forces will encounter in mounting a ground assault into the dense urban terrain of the Gaza Strip — and those difficulties are considerable, given that Hamas is holding at least 199 hostages and has built an extensive network of tunnels where its fighters can hide. But this conflict is more likely to be decided in the realm of information warfare than urban warfare.
Hamas recognizes the importance of the “battle of the narrative.” That’s why its terrorists were equipped with GoPro cameras during their murderous rampage through southern Israel on Oct. 7. Some of their footage quickly found its way to social media. But showing terrorists killing innocent civilians is hardly the way to win the world’s sympathy, which is why the Israeli government itself released some captured footage of atrocities.
Hamas did not score a significant information-warfare victory until Tuesday’s explosion at al-Ahli Hospital. The Hamas-controlled Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza immediately blamed the blast on an Israeli airstrike and claimed that 500 civilians had been killed. This “breaking news” was immediately, and credulously, picked up by Western news media. (BBC alert: “Hundreds of people have been killed in an Israeli strike on a hospital in Gaza, according to Palestinian officials.”) Even U.S. allies such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia stridently denounced the purported Israeli airstrike. The leaders of the Palestinian Authority, Egypt and Jordan canceled a planned meeting with President Biden. Angry protesters marched everywhere from Beirut to Baghdad.
Yet, a few hours after the initial news, a competing version of events emerged: Israeli spokesmen claimed the casualties were caused not by an Israeli bomb but by a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket that went astray. Israel even released a purported intercept of two terrorists discussing the terrible accident. Independent open-source intelligence analysts such as Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat and former U.N. war-crimes investigator Marc Garlasco joined in to say their examinations of photos and videos of the blast site did not reveal the kind of crater that an Israeli bomb would have left. While visiting Israel, Biden backed up its claims, saying the U.S. Defense Department had told him that “the other team” was responsible for the blast. The U.S. intelligence community also absolved Israel; and, after reviewing its findings, so did the Senate Intelligence Committee.
The definitive verdict has yet to be rendered, but it seems fair to say that Israel has a strong case: It has presented evidence backed by outside analysts, and Hamas has not. And yet much of the world did not wait for a fuller picture to emerge before rushing to condemn the Jewish state.
This is not a new experience for Israel. In 2002, when the Israel Defense Forces responded to suicide bombings in Israel by attacking Palestinian militants in the Jenin refugee camp, Palestinians claimed 500 civilians had been killed, and that report was picked up around the world. The United Nations later found than 52 Palestinians had been killed — and a maximum of 26 might have been civilians. But few noticed the U.N. findings.
Israel, as a small liberal democracy in need of international support, is sensitive to global opinion in a way that despotic states such as Russia — which deliberately targets civilians in its military operations — are not. In 2006, Israel faced irresistible pressure to end its offensive against Hezbollah after an Israeli bomb struck an apartment building in Qana, Lebanon, killing 28 people — lower than initial estimates of 54 dead but still appalling.
I am not one of those who takes an “Israel right or wrong” approach. I have not been hesitant to call out Israel for its misdeeds, whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assault on democracy or Israel’s expansion of settlements in the West Bank. And I recognize that Israel does not always tell the truth: The IDF at first denied that one of its soldiers had shot and killed a Palestinian American journalist last year before belatedly setting the record straight. That initial, inaccurate response left Israel with a credibility gap on Tuesday. I note, too, that some of the initial reports about Hamas atrocities on Oct. 7 were exaggerated or uncorroborated. Both sides engage in information warfare.
I also disagree with uber-hawks such as Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who said on Sunday: “Israel can bounce the rubble in Gaza. Anything that happens in Gaza is the responsibility of Hamas.” While Hamas wantonly violates the laws of war, Israel has an obligation to obey them — and that means doing everything possible to minimize civilian casualties and to provide humanitarian relief even though Hamas hides among civilians. Based on my reporting on Israeli military operations over the years, I believe the IDF does recognize its obligation to uphold the laws of war, even if some far-right firebrands in the Netanyahu government do not. But, of course, in the heat of battle, even the best-intentioned militaries will kill civilians by accident, and it is imperative to hold them to account.
In sum, I am not suggesting that anyone should uncritically accept whatever Israel says. But that same skepticism should certainly extend to Hamas, a terrorist organization that is not noted for its devotion to either honesty or human decency. The “battle of the narrative” is more important than ever. That makes it all the more imperative that the world — journalists especially — not echo the claims of either side without first checking them out.
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