A drop in turnout or small defection from the GOP would doom his candidacy. Republicans should heed the warning from the Wall Street Journal editorial board (!): “59% of Ms. Haley’s voters say they wouldn’t vote for Mr. Trump if he is the GOP nominee. And the exit poll showed that 36% of South Carolina primary voters said a conviction in one of his criminal trials would make him unfit to be President.” (Other polls confirm many Republicans won’t vote for Trump if he is convicted.)
To further sway Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Biden can lean into four critical issues.
As many strongmen do, Trump cultivated a movement based on toxic masculinity, violence and domination of women. (Right-wing authoritarians routinely seek to restrict women to the role of wife and mother, if for nothing else than to avoid racial “replacement.”) The civil verdict holding him liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll and his long history of misogynistic comments might be sufficient to send record numbers of women fleeing to Democrats. However, it is his attack on women’s reproductive rights that might push the gender gap to new highs.
Trump has repeatedly bragged about the reversal of Roe v. Wade, which eliminated 14th Amendment protection for reproductive rights, ushered in abortion bans, and left IVF and contraception vulnerable. Republicans are now furiously trying to backpedal from their extreme, unpopular policies that have inevitably resulted in decisions such as the recent Alabama ruling that embryos are children. The theocratic, radical judge’s ruling generated a backlash as great as that to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling.
Trump and his party now claim they are all in favor of IVF. However, that won’t fly. Senate Republicans blocked a bill in 2022 to protect IVF, and at least 125 House Republicans support “life at conception” or “personhood” bills (under which some forms of contraception might be vulnerable). How is that going to go over with women, even antiabortion women?
Remember, even in red (Kansas) and swing (Wisconsin) states, both men and women have rejected the MAGA movement’s forced-birth crusade. You can bet women’s control over their own bodies and childbearing will feature prominently in Biden’s approach to Republican women.
The country’s violent crime rate has plummeted under Biden, although you wouldn’t know it from GOP disinformation and gory news coverage. Biden increasingly touts his record on crime, an issue critical to many voters.
On Wednesday, Biden hosted a group of big city police chiefs (many in swing states such as Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona) to herald the plunge in crime, especially homicide rates. This won’t be the last time he reminds voters the American Rescue Plan allocated $15 billion to fight crime.
Domestic policy adviser Neera Tanden stressed in a brief phone interview, “It’s important to communicate our record on investing in accountable policing.” She pointed to pre-pandemic homicide rates in cities such as Philadelphia, Detroit and Miami (whose chiefs attended the meeting). She argued that “it’s important to hear from the people on the ground,” namely police chiefs, who can attest to having more resources to retain police, fund critical items such as additional streetlights and pay for mental health responders.
Without mentioning Trump, she said, “The chiefs will say a good relationship between the local community and police is critical.” She added, “Pitting people against each other, [police chiefs], will say is the wrong strategy.”
Biden has asked for $37 billion more for the Safer America Plan, which would pay for 100,000 more police officers and fund community violence intervention and crisis responders. He continues to push for additional gun safety measures, including universal background checks. Indeed, Republicans’ refusal to regulate weapons of war might, as much as Biden’s record, shake loose some “soft” Republican voters.
Biden is traveling to the southern border, underscoring how the Trump-led Republican destruction of a tough bipartisan bill changed the political landscape. “Biden has excoriated Republicans for abandoning the bipartisan border deal after Trump came out in opposition to the plan to tighten asylum restrictions and create daily limits on border crossings,” the Associated Press reported. Expect more in the coming months.
Biden will not win over hardcore anti-immigration voters determined to round up and deport millions of people. However, he can win over some Republicans if he demonstrates he has the will and know-how to regain control of the border.
Country club Republicans, small-business owners and many other voters live orderly lives, follow the rules and rely on stable government with predictable laws and economic policies. With GOP state parties and the House caucus in constant turmoil, Trump’s rants flooding social media, and the real risk he will be convicted, Republicans do not offer sane, orderly government. No wonder former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has associated Trump with “chaos.”
Biden will seize every opportunity to revisit the chaotic Trump years: fights with allies, a daily barrage of insane tweets, bizarre media conferences, the coronavirus running rampant, spilling classified information (even before leavingoffice!), and schools closing. (They reopened under Biden.) And, worst of all, he instigated an insurrection, plunging the Capitol into violence and threatening his own vice president’s life.
If elected, Trump promises more tumult (e.g., inviting Russian leader Vladimir Putin to invade NATO countries, repealing the Affordable Care Act, deporting millions of people). Is that what voters want? Voters might puzzle over the meaning of “democracy,” but Biden can vividly remind them of Trump’s reign of chaos, violence and anxiety. Here is where “old” and “boring” might be real assets — at least compared to “unstable and unhinged.”
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