And let’s face it: If not Haley, the nominee will be Donald Trump, setting up a potential rerun of 2020 with, if anything, even more menacing implications for America democracy. The former president is already claiming that Democrats are signing up illegal immigrants to vote, the sort of propaganda on which to base a later claim that the election was illegitimate.
“The fact is, the threat of Donald Trump is so high that you should take any chance that you can get,” political consultant and Never Trumper Sarah Longwell recently said on CNN. “And so if there is some kind of shot to take in the primary, I think it’s worth taking. And right now, Nikki Haley looks like that only shot.”
Virtually no one expects Haley to beat Trump in Iowa, where he holds a steady lead of more than 30 points over the rest of the field. She therefore must make enough waves — “defy expectations,” as the expectations-makers say — to put her head-and-shoulders above her rivals, if not chase them out, establishing her as the only viable alternative to Trump. To that end, she must check three boxes.
First, she must put a stake through what’s left of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s ailing campaign. Even his own supporters think he is on his last legs. “Ryan Tyson, Mr. DeSantis’s longtime pollster and one of his closest advisers, has privately said to multiple people that they are now at the point in the campaign where they need to ‘make the patient comfortable,’ a phrase evoking hospice care,” the New York Times recently reported. (The DeSantis campaign provided the paper with a statement from Tyson denying the quote.) The Times continued: “Others have spoken of a coming period of reputation management, both for the governor and themselves, after a slow-motion implosion of the relationship between the campaign and an allied super PAC left even his most ardent supporters drained and demoralized.”
Indeed, since DeSantis’s campaign has been so dreadful and his candidacy’s demise so widely predicted, Haley needs to beat him outright to lay claim to the Trump-alternative role. Finishing third, behind a candidate who is comically awkward when he encounters actual voters, could be a momentum killer for Haley.
Haley’s best shot to shove DeSantis out of the race might be the Jan. 10 Republican debate when she and DeSantis will be the only candidates onstage. She has the verbal skills and nerve to go after his obvious faults. If she clobbers DeSantis at the debate, beats him in Iowa and thereby forces him out of the race (or drives his support toward the single digits) she would check the first of three boxes needed to make this a real contest.
Second, Haley needs to keep Trump’s winning margin down. Less than 30 points? Certainly. Less than 20? Well, that would be news and fuel a week of “Is Trump vulnerable?” coverage — exactly what she needs. With only a week between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, she needs to commandeer as much free media coverage as possible, deflating any hopes that former New Jersey governor Chris Christie could prove to be the Trump alternative and reminding Republican primary voters that Trump’s nomination is not inevitable. (Highly likely, but not inevitable.)
Provided she checks the second box (keeping it close), Haley’s final task will be to stick the landing in her speech after the Iowa caucuses results. She’ll have the most attention from the media and primary voters since her campaign started. It would be her moment to claim a victory of sorts, make the case that she is the only plausible alternative to Trump and then, finally, pivot to attacking Trump.
So far, Haley has avoided taking Trump on, but if she is to be the sole alternative to him, she will have no choice. But how should she go about doing it? Pro-democracy Americans would love to see her go for the jugular, attacking Trump as an indicted criminal, the only president to betray his oath by refusing to peacefully turn over power, an accused thief of national secrets and an errand boy for tinpot dictators. As satisfying as hearing that from Haley might be, though, that’s really President Biden’s message (rolled out on Saturday, in fact), not one for a Republican primary electorate stocked with election deniers.
An alternative, but equally forceful, message — and one designed to drive Trump nuts — would be something along these lines: “Trump has lost it. He spends his time ranting and raving not only about the last election but about whales and wind turbines causing cancer — like the nutty uncle at the holiday dinner table. He’s going to scare off all but the hardcore Republicans. And worse, like it or not, there is a really good chance he will get convicted at least once between now and November. You might think that’s unfair, but we cannot ignore the very substantial risk of nominating someone who gets convicted of serious felonies. Can you imagine what Joe Biden will say about that? My fellow Republicans, that would be a disaster. Bottom line: Trump brings too much baggage and entails too many risks for an election the party must win.”
That would be daring, newsworthy and catnip for the media. Running clips of it for a solid week would lift Haley’s profile, engage the audience, maybe persuade some independents to vote for her in New Hampshire and, as noted, provoke the mother of all Trump meltdowns.
In sum, if Haley knocks out DeSantis, keeps the margin down and delivers a boffo victory speech in Iowa, we might actually see a competitive Republican race rather than a coronation for a would-be dictator.
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