The Israeli government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for some time been threatening to invade Hamas’s last stronghold in Rafah, the area near the Egyptian border where more than 1 million Gazans have sought refuge, but has announced it won’t follow through on the threat at least until March 10, when the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins, to give hostage negotiations time to succeed. Given the potential for more civilian suffering if and when Israel launches such an operation, this delay, too, counts as relative good news.
For now, Mr. Netanyahu’s talk of a Rafah operation could be aimed at pressuring Hamas officials to make a deal. But it also clearly represents his intention, reflecting Israel’s determination to inflict a blow on Hamas so crippling that the organization could never repeat the heinous Oct. 7 attacks against civilians in Israel. Still, it is far from clear how the Israel Defense Forces could successfully distinguish civilians from Hamas fighters, evacuate refugees back to Gaza’s shattered north, or calibrate a Rafah military operation to damage Hamas without another humanitarian disaster. Thus, it is necessary and appropriate that the Biden administration is urging caution and insisting that Israel present a credible plan for limiting harm to civilians.
Of course, neither a Rafah offensive nor hostage bargaining with Hamas should be necessary. Hamas should release the hostages it took, in clear violation of the laws of war, and seek a resolution to the Gaza conflict aimed at sparing Palestinians more tragedy, which would require releasing its claims on Gaza’s people. But beginning with Oct. 7, Hamas’s leaders have put their own political and ideological prerogatives before Gazans’ lives. Nevertheless, President Biden is right to insist that Israel act with restraint and in accordance with international law, and to use the United States’ leverage as Israel’s chief military supporter to make sure that happens.
Meanwhile, the administration has the right general concept for the talks: a temporary cease-fire that could create the conditions for a long-term truce. On its own, the release of Israeli hostages would be a humanitarian victory, as would a break in Israeli offensive action. The daily Palestinian death toll is still too high, but it is down from the early days of Israel’s massive aerial bombardment of Gaza, which might reflect private and, increasingly, public Biden administration pressure on Israel. Yet dire supply shortages and horrid conditions persist, and could be ameliorated with a negotiated pause in fighting.
A long-term settlement would be even better, if less likely. Hamas demands that any short pause lead to talks on a permanent cease-fire. That is at least theoretically compatible with the preferences of the Biden administration, which hopes that a six-week pause could provide the foundation for a longer-term resolution — including peace negotiations and an eventual Palestinian state. The best hope is that softening Israel’s opposition to creating a Palestinian state will give room to Arab governments to provide money and political support to rebuild Gaza, economically and politically, without Hamas.
Mr. Biden is in a tough position, dealing with a split political coalition at home, Arab governments wary of appearing to concede too much to Israel, and the perpetually difficult Mr. Netanyahu, who has been touting his opposition to a Palestinian state. The president’s best option is to use the leverage he has to pressure Arab governments to lean on or sideline an unreasonable Hamas, and the Israeli government to wind down large-scale operations and airstrikes in favor of more targeted actions. The administration was right to sharpen its rhetoric against new Israeli settlements in the West Bank and to extract public commitments from Israel that it will not expel Palestinians permanently from Gaza or reoccupy the enclave. There are many ways the situation in Gaza could get worse in the coming days. But there is only one way to prevent that: skillful U.S. leadership that recognizes Israel’s right to defend itself — but also insists, clearly and often, that its military operations meet high standards.
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