No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did exactly what you’d expect if you were expecting the least interesting outcoming. Specifically, yields had drifted as high as 4.45+ in the overnight session. That’s a bit too close to the 4.50 range boundary for 11 day weekends! But traders figured it out and started pushing back toward more central levels in spite of several Fed comments that might be considered hawkish. Speaking of the Fed, tomorrow brings the minutes from the most recent meeting (3 weeks ago). While Fed minutes have had huge impacts in the past, we’re not expecting fireworks from this installment.
10:26 AM
Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains in the first two hours. 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.412 and MBS up 5 ticks (.16).
11:40 AM
Mostly sideways, near best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.7 at 4.409
02:45 PM
Guess what! Still sideways. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.412
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