Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report

Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report

It was a surprisingly and mysteriously decent day for the bond market (and even more decent for mortgage rates).  Unlike other days this week, overnight and early morning weakness was minimal.  Gains began ramping up right after the Jobless Claims data.  The direction of the move is no mystery, considering claims came in at 221k vs 214k, but the pace of the move is harder to explain.  Claims don’t typically have as noticeable an impact.  No matter… yields drifted sideways to slightly higher into 2pm and everything seemed to make sense until another sharp little rally over the following 2 hours.  A big stock sell-off was clearly involved and perhaps some buzz surrounding geopolitical risks.  All told, it was enough to get yields back into the range that was broken on Monday (4.32% key level in 10yr) right before the jobs report flips a coin on another big breakout.  Of course if the coin lands on the other side, rates are more likely to take a friendly lead-off heading into next week’s CPI.