Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:34 PM
Unless Friday’s Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in some completely unprecedented way, bonds have made it through the week of economic reports and Treasury auctions without looking any worse for the wear. Thursday saw a small amount of ground conceded, but not enough to move yields back up in to last week’s range. The initial reaction to the 8:30am data was actually slightly positive for bonds. Selling came later, suggesting sellers had other motivations. The recovery in the afternoon was concentrated in the shorter end of the yield curve following an article by WSJ’s Timiraos discussing a 25bp vs 50bp Fed rate cut.
- Jobless Claims
- 230k vs 230k f’cast, 227k prev
- Core PPI MM
- 0.3 vs 0.2 f’cast, -0.2 prev
- Core PPY YY
- 2.4 vs 2.5 f’cast, 2.4 prev
- Jobless Claims
08:54 AM
Roughly unchanged overnight and a hair stronger after data. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 3.647
01:13 PM
weakest levels just after noon, but off the lows now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 4.2 bps at 3.696
02:55 PM
MBS now down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 3.681
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