Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week
Fri, Jan 24 2025, 4:27 PM
If bonds had continued to sell off today, it would have made the week slightly more interesting, but even then, we would still be well under the high yields seen last week. As it stands, the combination of this morning’s economic data and an undetermined source of inspiration a short while later left bonds in modestly stronger territory, thus making for a very flat week in the bigger picture. This is neither bad nor good, and also not a huge surprise given the very light data calendar. There are bigger-ticket events in the week ahead, including a Fed announcement (just tuning in for the press conference), GDP (1st look at Q4), and PCE inflation.
- S&P Services PMI
- 52.8 vs 56.5 f’cast, 56.8 prev
- prices and employment moved higher
- Consumer Sentiment
- 71.1 vs 73.2 f’cast, 74.0 prev\
- 1yr inflation: unchanged
- 5yr inflation: down 0.1
- S&P Services PMI
10:02 AM
Modestly stronger at the open, but slightly weaker after data. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.647
10:48 AM
Bouncing back now. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.629
01:51 PM
Off the best levels, but still up an eighth in MBS and down 1.3bps in 10yr.
04:26 PM
Moving back toward stronger levels into the close. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.618
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