Just Another “Worst Day Since…” Type of Day
Wed, Oct 18 2023, 4:45 PM
In a rising rate environment where long term boundaries have recently been broken, it doesn’t necessarily take big news in order to say things like “highest mortgage rates in 23 years” or “highest bond yields since 2007.” In fact, we’ve been forced to say such things on multiple occasions recently and today wasn’t special among them. It would be a mistake to give any credit to this morning’s housing data as a market mover. If there was any connection between events and bonds, the best candidate was a Biden speech calling for big spending on overseas war efforts. Bottom line: markets are increasingly willing to react to any new implications for Treasury issuance.
- Housing Starts
- 1.358m vs 1.38m f’cast, 1.269m prev
- Building Permits
- 1.473m vs 1.45m f’cast, 1.541m prev
- Housing Starts
09:12 AM
Sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but giving up gains early. 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.872. MBS down a quarter point.
12:24 PM
Additional weakness into mid-day. 10yr up 7.3bps at 4.911. MBS down 10 ticks (.31).
04:33 PM
Yet again, a flat afternoon after AM weakness. Both MBS and Treasuries unchanged from the last update.
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