Holding Ground to Start New Week. Limited Data Apart From Fed Minutes

Bonds were moving with a clear purpose at the end of 2023 before embarking on a small, logical correction at the beginning of 2024.  In terms of 10yr yields, the case looked to be closed on the correction after defending a ceiling at 4.19%, but last week’s data stretched the range more than 10bps higher.  “Data dependence” reigns supreme for the foreseeable future, so what to do in the absence of data apart from hurry up and wait? 

Data is conspicuously absent on this holiday-shortened week with Wednesday’s Fed minutes being the only calendar item that has ever made the list of heavy hitters.  Even then, it’s not clear what the minutes could say that has not already been communicated via recent speeches.  As such, unless we find unexpected inspiration elsewhere, we’re left to watch overhead range boundaries while hurrying up and waiting for the next shoe to drop.

From a technical standpoint, one might be inclined to pass the time by seeing whether the 4.32 ceiling breaks in 10yr yields before the 2 week uptrend (yellow line in the chart below).  These are far from perfect tea leaves, but it would amount to one small vote in favor of the breakout direction (i.e. breaking below the yellow line is what you’d rather see if you don’t want rates to go any higher).