Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 5:22 PM
Much of the past week has been spent monitoring the “post-Fed correction”–a nominal pull back in the impressive rate rally of the past several months following last week’s Fed announcement. If you prefer “buy the rumor, sell the news” on the Fed rate cut, it’s the same thing. By the end of this week, the correction finally looked to have leveled off, even if it got a bit of help from cooperative econ data. The timing is frustrating for those looking to predict the future as next week brings us even more squarely into a data-driven episode for bonds/rates. The not-so-frustrating thing is that the correction was never very large (downright small, even).
- M/M Core PCE
- 0.1 vs 0.2 f’cast, 0.2 prev
- Unrounded 0.13
- Y/Y Core PCE
- 2.7 vs 2.7 f’cast, 2.6 prev
- Consumer Sentiment
- 70.1 vs 69.3 f’cast, 67.9 prev
- M/M Core PCE
08:37 AM
slightly stronger after PCE. 10yr yields are down 2.9bps at 3.769 and MBS are up an eighth of a point.
11:03 AM
Giving up early gains. MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 3.773
12:45 PM
Best levels of the day now with MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 3.743
05:18 PM
Heading out at the day’s best levels or close to it. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr down 4.6bps at 3.75
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