Fed Speakers on Repeat as Bonds Hit Snooze
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:04 PM
After several days of heavy volatility, the bond market is drifting into a sideways daze, lulled to sleep by the repetitive tones from multiple Fed speakers. One after another, they’re saying the same version of the same thesis (good progress on inflation, but need more, might cut in 2024, but not yet, surprisingly strong econ gives us time to decide, etc). Bonds have clearly heard it all before, which is why they didn’t care about Powell saying this stuff last week. NYCB headlines were worth temporary volatility, but not lasting changes. The largest ever 10yr auction passed without a trace.
09:11 AM
Initially stronger overnight on NYCB downgrade, but steadily weaker into domestic hours. Pushing back modestly now with MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr yields up 1.8bps at 4.108.
09:47 AM
10yr yields are quickly down a a few bps at 4.073 after new NYCB headlines. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).
11:46 AM
NYCB gains erased fairly quickly. 10yr now back to 2bps to 4.11. MBS down 3 ticks.
01:05 PM
Uneventful 10yr auction. 10s up 2bps at 4.11. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day in 5.5 coupons.
02:26 PM
10yr unchanged from previous update. MBS tightening up a bit, now down only 3 ticks (.09).
04:42 PM
Weakest levels of the day with MBS down a quarter point moments ago. 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.117
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