Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given the 233k vs 115k result in the ADP Employment data. Granted, ADP is a notoriously imperfect predictor of the NFP number that follows 2 days later, but that never stops markets from reacting on occasions like this. So what stopped them today? Some combination of month-end trading, a favorable report on new Treasury auction amounts, “bigger fish to fry,” and perhaps the fact that payroll counts are being taken with a grain of salt due to weather-related disruptions in September. Ultimately, bonds did manage to lose a bit of ground, but not until well after the morning’s econ data reaction window had passed.
- ADP Employment
- 233k vs 115k f’cast, 143k prev
- GDP Q3
- 2.8 vs 3.0 f’cast, 3.0 prev
- Core Q3 PCE price index
- 2.2 vs 2.1 f’cast, 2.8 prev
- ADP Employment
08:40 AM
Slightly stronger overnight and weaker after data. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.264
10:32 AM
Nice recovery into the 10am hour with 10yr now down 1.7bps at 4.238 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).
01:16 PM
less volatility now. Modest weakness remains. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.259
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