California corporate exits are not as simple as they seem

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When oil giant Chevron said over the summer that it would be moving its corporate headquarters to Houston from San Ramon, the headlines were dire. “Chevron Dumps California for Texas After 145 Years,” read one. Another called the move a “Snub to California.” A third noted that the departure came “as Regulations Mount in Golden State.”

The gloomy headlines illustrate how the press and corporate leaders often oversimplify big-company departures from California, leading citizens and state officials to under-examine the factors that lessen the impact of corporate departures and overstate their importance. The same type of doomsaying has played out with other big companies whose headquarters are leaving or have left the state, including Tesla, Oracle and SpaceX. 

In Chevron’s case, discussions of the exit tended to miss or downplay a few key points. Despite talk tying the move to regulations and climate-change litigation in California, CEO Mike Wirth said repeatedly that the relocation was about moving to “the energy capital of the world,” not policy differences with state officials. Also, Chevron already had three times as many workers in Texas as in California at the time it decided to move. And few observers bothered to note the major operations Chevron would retain in the state, including refineries and oil fields.

With other exits, pundits often don’t examine the true effects on state tax revenue. Or take into account the fact that some companies leave key people in California or eventually return. And expansions by companies or startups that pop up here don’t get as much attention, either, the governor and some economists say.

“This is a long narrative in California — about businesses moving out,” said Ted Egan, chief economist for San Francisco. “At the same time, you need to talk about businesses starting up.” 

Understanding the nuances of corporate exits is important because the departures can influence state policy and affect confidence among consumers and businesses. For example, the prospect of tech companies fleeing the state was raised this year by opponents of a California bill, eventually vetoed by the governor, that would have made tech companies test for critical harms from large artificial intelligence systems. Similarly, when Democratic Assemblymember Alex Lee of San Jose proposed a wealth tax last year, the California Chamber of Commerce said in a letter to him that the tax would likely contribute to “California’s business and resident exodus.” It did not pass. The Chamber used identical language in 2022 when successfully opposing various tax increases to fund a single-payer state health care program.

Despite complaints about high taxes, expensive housing and burdensome regulations — grousing that has been going on for decades — the state remains the national leader both for tech startups and for its share of big companies.

“I agree California is a more onerous place to do business,” said David Neumark, a UC Irvine economics professor who has studied relocations. “But it’s not like we’re some basket case.”

When leaving looks like staying

Some companies that recently made high-profile headquarters exits from the state have also either added more California employees or kept the lion’s share of workers here. Any remaining employees in California will continue to pay the state’s personal income tax.

Take Oracle, for example. The tech company announced in 2020 that it was moving its headquarters to Austin from Redwood City, leading to headlines like “Oracle Moves Headquarters to Texas, Joining Valley Exodus” and worries over “California’s higher operational costs and hefty taxes,” not to mention “steeper cost of living,” according to a couple of articles about the news. And yet Oracle as of this past spring still had almost triple the office workers in California than it has in Texas, 6,900 vs. 2,500, Bloomberg reported. A company spokesperson did not return a request for comment. But Redwood City’s data showed the company was still its biggest employer as of 2023. Though Oracle eliminated about 3,000 jobs in Redwood City over the past decade, it retains about 3,757 workers there, or more than 7% of the city’s workforce. 

Oracle continues to pay taxes in California, though because tax records are confidential, it’s hard to know exactly how much. That includes not just sales taxes but corporate income taxes too; moving a headquarters does not necessarily mean a company escapes those.  

“Corporations’ tax has very little to do with where their headquarters or employees are located,” said Brian Uhler, deputy legislative analyst with the state. “For a multinational business, they earn profit in California and outside California. California attributes profits to the state based on what share of a company’s national sales occur here.”

The state taxes corporations based on their sales, property and investments. So if a company earns revenue from sales or transactions in California, the company will pay taxes here regardless of where its headquarters is based. Companies also have to pay employment taxes for their workers based here. And certain types of companies, such as banks and other financial institutions, pay higher or additional taxes.

Another tech company that continues to contribute tax revenue to the state: Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, which announced it was relocating its headquarters to Texas in 2020. Even so, company spokesperson Adam Bauer said last month that the company has about 3,700 employees in Texas and about 3,600 in California. And on the company’s website, there were recently more job openings in California (45) than in Texas (34), including a few sales positions, a Northwest account executive and a “supplier relationship owner” for Nvidia, which is based in California. 

A third company that “left” California without really leaving is Tesla, which has actually grown in the state since its departure. The electric car maker moved its headquarters from Silicon Valley to Austin in 2021. CEO Elon Musk told shareholders that the company’s factory in Fremont was “jammed” and that housing costs in the state were high, making it tough for workers to live near the facility. Musk had also clashed with local health officials about COVID-related shutdowns. The New York Times framed the relocation as a “Blow to California.”

But three years later it doesn’t seem like a particularly severe blow. In 2022, the year after the move, the company “grew to 47,000 employees” in California, it said in a blog post, and ”our production footprint continued to increase.” Then, the next year, Tesla announced it would put its engineering and AI headquarters in Palo Alto, reportedly expecting to locate 1,400 employees in Hewlett-Packard’s former headquarters there. 

California’s Tesla experience makes it hard not to wonder how impactful two other recently announced Musk-related relocations will be. In July, the billionaire said he was moving the headquarters of social media company X and rocket builder SpaceX to Texas from California. Musk cited a law recently signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that bans the state’s school districts from requiring parents to be notified of a change in their child’s gender identification. Musk has a transgender daughter and has been publicly critical of transgender people’s rights to choose preferred pronouns. He called the law “the final straw” on top of  “many others that preceded it, attacking both families and companies.” 

It’s not clear how many California X and SpaceX employees will actually end up in Texas. A source told the Washington Post that the 120 employees at X headquarters in San Francisco will move to Musk-linked offices in San Jose and Palo Alto, but since then the company has reportedly said in legal filings that it will move X’s headquarters to Bastrop, Texas. LAist quoted experts saying that moving SpaceX to Starbase, Texas, will be complicated and time-consuming since the company’s headquarters in Hawthorne is a huge aerospace facility. X and SpaceX did not respond to requests for additional information.

Similarly, Chevron spokesperson Randy Stuart said the company has not yet decided which of its positions in San Ramon will relocate to Texas. The relocation is not effective until Jan. 1 and the company expects it will take five years to migrate most corporate functions to Texas. Some 2,000 Chevron employees work in California versus 7,000 in Texas but that includes people outside of headquarters working on Chevron’s operations in this state, including crude oil fields, technical facilities and two refineries, which range from the San Joaquin Valley to Richmond to El Segundo. 

Growth can be hard to notice

While big departures like Musk’s get a lot of attention, expansions and new businesses within California tend not to.

In a recent Instagram post, Gov. Gavin Newsom tried to combat what he labeled “misinformation” about California’s economy by touting in-state expansions by well-known companies such as Visa, Ford Motor, Nintendo and Disneyland. He added that “the world’s leading AI companies are expanding right here in California.”

The governor may have a point about those expansions. There weren’t very many headlines — if any — about Visa recently opening a big new office in San Francisco; Ford’s plans to roll out a new electric-vehicle development center in Long Beach early next year; Nintendo’s intention to open a store in San Francisco next year; and Disneyland’s multibillion-dollar expansion over the next decade that promises jobs and community benefits for the city of Anaheim. 

Statewide, about 291,000 new business entities have registered in California this year, according to the secretary of state’s office, compared with 215,000 a decade ago. And that number does not include sole proprietorships, which do not register with the state.

Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist, noted that new AI companies are taking office space in San Francisco, helping the city’s slow recovery from the pandemic-induced boom in remote work. PitchBook, which keeps track of capital markets, recently ranked San Francisco the top city in the world for startups. New York and Beijing were second and third. And a report from PitchBook and the National Venture Capital Association showed that the Bay Area and Los Angeles combined had a total of 746 venture capital deals in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared with 402 deals in New York, the runner-up.

In addition, for the first time since 2014, California as of June has the highest number of Fortune 500 companies, 57, while Texas and New York have 52 each. Newcomers to Fortune magazine’s annual ranking of the world’s biggest companies based on their revenue included California-based companies DoorDash, Workday, Prologis and Clorox. 

Sarah Bohn, labor economist at the Public Policy Institute of California, said the headquarters moves “warrant attention, at a minimum. These moves make headlines, and that’s an important force for how people are feeling about doing business in California.”

Bohn said she is currently doing research to quantify the effects of corporate departures, but that it’s important to remember that there are always businesses moving out of, starting up in, or dying in the state. 

Neumark, the UC Irvine professor, is working with Bohn on that research. He also co-authored a couple of research papers that examined the issue in 2004 and 2007, so he knows the concern about businesses leaving the state is not new. Neumark saw the same worries back then, during the Arnold Schwarzenegger era. There was a lot of talk about companies moving out of California and some “crazy political stuff,” he said. That included the actor-turned-governor showing up at a Las Vegas business with a van marked “Arnold’s Moving Co.” to symbolically help that company move back to California.

Neumark and his fellow researchers found in 2007 that California did not lose a significant number of workers due to business relocations, only about 11,000 jobs a year out of more than 18 million jobs from 1992 to 2004. In the same period, total employment in the state rose by around 106,000 jobs per year, driven by the creation and expansion of new businesses, according to data presented in the paper. The researchers found no evidence of a mass business exodus, saying that the net losses in the number of businesses that left and jobs lost as a result were negligible: 0.05% of businesses in California moved to other states during each of the two worst years, 1993 and 1994; and 0.1% of jobs were lost to relocation during each of the two worst years, 1997 and 1998. He mentioned that a substantial portion of California’s economy is service-oriented, “and restaurants and hospitals don’t move to other states.” 

Complaints from departing corporations

There is no denying that some business executives are fed up with the state. 

After Chevron’s exit last month, the president of moderate business group Bay Area Council, Jim Wunderman, said in a written statement: “It’s an embarrassment for California that we’ve lost so many global companies because of misguided policies that make it incredibly difficult to do business here.”

In an interview with CalMatters, Wunderman said it’s time for a “reckoning.” He said lawmakers and officials need to rethink policies that make it hard to build housing, or drive up the cost of energy. “I understand we’re going through an energy transition. Do we have to do it in a way that we exacerbate economic problems in the state?”

He pointed to a bill, recently signed into law by the governor, that aims to curtail traffic and air pollution from warehouses. “We’re constantly regulating things to make it more difficult for businesses. (The warehouse bill) particularly affects the Inland Empire, whose economy is built around that industry.” By possibly reducing the number of job opportunities at warehouses, Winderman said the new law could hurt the very people it’s trying to protect.

California’s flat corporate income tax rate of 8.84% of a company’s net income is the sixth highest in the country, according to the right-leaning think tank Tax Foundation. Conservative legislators also criticized a recent decision by the governor and Legislature to suspend certain business tax deductions and limit tax credits for three years to close the budget deficit, saying such suspensions have become too common. 

On the other hand, the state’s corporate tax rate has actually declined over the past few decades, with state lawmakers slashing it from 9.6% to 9.3% in 1987, then to its current rate in 1997. The California Budget & Policy Center, a left-leaning think tank, said in a 2022 analysis of state data that corporate tax breaks have lessened the tax burden on California businesses over the years.

Ahmad Thomas, CEO of Silicon Valley Leadership Group, which advocates for big tech companies, said, “The challenge we have is the cost of doing business and operating in California continues to increase. How do we mitigate that?”

Thomas said California’s “competitive advantage continues to be chipped away at year after year by competition” that is global. He mentioned that there needs to be “more innovative solutions… around our cost structure connected to our tax policy,” as well as more affordable housing. 

He wants industry and policymakers to work together to drive down the cost of living here, while trying to minimize additional taxes to businesses.

Still, business leaders get something in exchange for grappling with those challenges: access to capital, a skilled workforce, world-class universities and more.

“Full stop, I believe there is no better place to locate, grow and scale a company than in California,” Thomas said. 

And not all state policies and laws drive business away. They help create them.

Bohn of the Public Policy Institute of California said the state continues to have policy levers, such as tax credits, that it can use to target businesses it wants to keep in the state.

Case in point: Newsom boasted last year during a press conference with Musk about Tesla’s partial homecoming that California legislation and policies on clean vehicles helped spur the company’s rise to electric-vehicle dominance. It is the most valuable automaker in the world and responsible for the bulk of Musk’s wealth, which reportedly will soon stretch beyond $1 trillion. Tesla’s success wouldn’t have happened without California, where the company has received at least $3.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies from the state, with the bulk of those being tax credits for zero-emissions vehicles, according to estimates from Newsom’s office reported by the San Francisco Chronicle. 

At the press conference, Musk stood stiffly by as Newsom bragged about the state’s pivotal role. But then the billionaire also made an admission that might startle those who think California businesses are beset by red tape and entitled workers: Tesla’s Fremont factory is the most productive automotive plant in North America. 

“It will probably be about 600,000 or more cars this year,” Musk said. “California is a tremendous manufacturer as well as a place of engineering innovation.”

That’s a point, Newsom added, “which is, again, often so lost.”