A Bit of Meaningless Weakness. More Important Stuff On Deck
1 Hour, 48 Min ago
Bonds lost ground to start the new week, but not for any compelling reasons. If we could even make a case for the weakness being caused by something, we’d be forced to rely on unsatisfying explanations like technical corrections or a leveling off of the prevailing trend ahead of bigger-ticket data. All that having been said, today was unequivocally a leveling-off of the prevailing trend ahead of bigger ticket data. The focus is not so much on the 7-8bps of 10yr yield weakness on this data-free day, but rather on the 20-40bps of movement that could be seen in response to economic data and the Fed over the next 7 business days.
- Factory Orders
- -3.6 vs -2.8 f’cast, +2.8 prev
- Factory Orders
09:42 AM
Moderately weaker overnight. Treasuries unresponsive to EU bond gains. 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.266. MBS down 10 ticks (.31).
11:23 AM
Slightly weaker into 11am hour. MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 7.5bps at 4.284.
12:37 PM
Worst levels of the day. 10yr yields up 8.8 bps at 4.297. MBS down 3/8ths.
02:24 PM
sideways near weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34). 10yr up 8bps at 4.289.
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