Russia is now adapting in ways that are difficult for Ukraine to defend against. The latest example is the use of glide bombs — old munitions, carrying up to a half-ton of explosives, fitted with wings and guidance systems to fly long distances with some accuracy. They allow Russian jets to stand off and fire, out of the range of Ukrainian antiaircraft systems. Along with cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, Russia has been pummeling Ukraine’s cities for days on end.
Ukraine could better equip itself with the aid bill that the Senate passed, which is stalled in the House, to provide $64 billion in military, economic and humanitarian support. Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense system missile batteries to keep the Russian planes and missiles at bay; it needs to take delivery of F-16 fighters to directly challenge the Russian aircraft; and it is desperate for more air defense ammunition, which is running low, as well as artillery shells. The F-16s are scheduled to come only later in the year. President Volodymyr Zelensky said last weekend that the country would need 25 Patriot air defense systems, each with six to eight batteries, to protect the full nation. It now has just three Patriot systems and a few spare launchers. On artillery shells, Russia is firing about six for every one that Ukraine fires.
Ukraine is also reeling from warrior fatigue and losses, a serious internal problem for Mr. Zelensky that cannot be resolved by money from the United States and its allies. When Russia invaded, he called up Ukrainian men, older than 27 years, but not those between 18 and 27 years old, in an effort to protect the younger generation for the nation’s future. The median age of the Ukraine armed forces is in the 40s, and many of the older troops have been at combat stations since 2014. The strain has left Ukraine’s infantry tattered and exposed, evident in the recent retreat from the town of Avdiivka.
Mr. Zelensky has signed a law dropping Ukraine’s minimum draft age to 25, but he is reluctant to mobilize a half-million personnel, as Ukraine’s former commander in chief suggested. A draft law to widen the parameters governing who can be conscripted has undergone thousands of amendments. The Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan quoted a Western diplomat in Kyiv saying the president and parliament are playing politics with the unpopular legislation. Russia has suffered even greater losses than Ukraine but has a call-up population four-to-six times larger. President Vladimir Putin can act with little internal resistance, and he appears determined to keep the pressure on.
Ukraine’s military situation isn’t entirely hopeless. It has significantly expanded the use of drones to destroy oil refineries hundreds of miles within Russian territory, and it has maintained a Black Sea corridor for its vital grain exports. But it faces the prospect of attrition on the battlefield while civilians are under a constant barrage of terror from Russian bombs, missiles and drones. Last weekend, the city of Kharkiv came under attack by Russian drones that hit a multistory building twice in quick succession, a despicable “double tap” in which the initial explosion drew first responders then killed by the second. Limited air defenses can do only so much to stop these attacks.
Though Russia can’t break the remarkable spirit of Ukraine’s people, this could be the year Russia breaks through Ukraine’s thinning lines. Surely, Mr. Putin is counting on this, combined with months of delay in the United States, and hopes for the return to office of former president Donald Trump, who urged House Republicans to withhold aid.
Every day the House delays makes Ukraine’s fight harder — and cuts the chance of a positive outcome to the conflict, even if U.S. assistance finally arrives. Mr. Johnson is reportedly preparing an aid package, despite his months-long quest to avoid alienating Mr. Trump and his supporters. Ukraine is out of time. Reality must finally prevail among House Republicans — or all they will be left with is shame.
Credit: Source link
