Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has been winning the most votes on each speakership ballot because he commands the biggest party. So he would be the speaker if our political system were functioning properly.
Until we recognize which party in the House is largest, this situation will not resolve itself. A new speaker might be chosen, but how secure will he or she truly be (asking here for some gentlemen named McCarthy, Ryan and Boehner)? I don’t have any view about Jeffries’s qualities as a potential speaker. I report this merely as an observer of the basic dynamics.
Those dynamics are unmistakable, and the opportunity that they offer to recalibrate what and how many parties we have is an exceptionally valuable one. We should push it to the max. If there weren’t so much urgent work in the world waiting to get done, this speakership standoff would actually be good for us.
Party realignments have happened every so often in U.S. history. Early on, they typically involved one party splitting. In the late 1820s, the Democratic-Republicans became, respectively, the Democratic Party and the National Republicans. The latter then evolved into the Whig Party. Then, in the early 1850s, the Whigs split into the Know-Nothings and the Republicans. President Abraham Lincoln’s Republicans defeated and absorbed the Know-Nothings and with victory in the Civil War gave us the modern party system of Democrats and Republicans.
In the 20th century, the two parties haven’t gone in much for splitting, but they have changed dramatically over time, by swapping constituencies. For instance, White Southerners were once mainly Democrats; now they are foundational to the Republican Party.
But perhaps now we are watching a party split again. There was the solar eclipse this month; maybe we’re watching another rare natural event.
The Trump Republicans stand for different things than does the Old Republican Party, even in its updated 2023 form. Trump Republicans such as Senate candidate Kari Lake of Arizona communicate no basic regard for the Constitution. They communicate a desire to impose cultural homogeneity by fiat, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. They communicate a desire to amass personalized power with little regard for the exercise of power for the benefit of those who are subject to it, like Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and Lauren Boebert (Colo.).
In contrast, members of Old Republican Party — let’s call it GOP23 — do ultimately stand up for the Constitution, as former vice president Mike Pence and former congresswoman Liz Cheney (Wyo.) have done. They acknowledge the diversity of the country, like former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. They offer conceptions of the common good when they offer up policy ideas, like Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah) and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, who is crossing the aisle to help us all learn to “disagree better.”
While all the members of the House with an R after their name might still be trying to convince themselves that they are one party, they can’t fool the rest of us. The differences are clear as day. As long as the groups stick to a commitment to be themselves, they will not be able to find a speaker with staying power. They can continue to torture themselves and the country, or they can face the truth, split and take care of the divorce details necessary for ushering in a three-party system.
I say, bring on the lawyers!
If and when GOP23 is ready to recognize itself as a separate party, it will have to set up a new national committee for itself. It must accept that — thanks to party chair Ronna McDaniel and the operations of state parties around the country — the members of the Freedom Caucus Party, or the Trump Republicans, whatever they will prefer to call themselves, now own the RNC. The GOP23 will have to figure out how to get its slots on the presidential ballot. (Maybe it could make a deal for the slots No Labels has been accruing). But be bold, GOP23, you can do it!
If and when the Freedom Caucus is ready to recognize that it is not merely a caucus but a party, it will have to complete a rebranding of the existing Republican Party to make sure all reds match Trump red and font styles match Trumpland styles. It will have to help the state parties get their financial houses in order in their name. There would be a lot of other organizational work for both sides to get done.
But boy would it be good for us to see the distinctions between these two halves of the Grand Old Party laid out in plain daylight — Freedom Party and GOP23 — and to have each make its case on its own behalf.
And maybe, just maybe, if the Democrats wanted to lock in the victory they deserve in the speakership battle, they would find some way to build bridges with the GOP23 and help us work our way toward a supermajority for constitutional democracy, ready to reestablish norms of good governance.
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