In this article, we look at 25 countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2050. You can skip our detailed analysis on the fastest growing religion in the world and the contribution of the Islamic world to global economy by heading over directly to the 10 Countries where Muslim Population will Increase the Most by 2050.
The religious profile of the globe is rapidly evolving, primarily driven by fertility rates and the percentage of youth populations among the world’s major religious groups. Islam today is the second largest religion in the world after Christianity, with about 24% of the world’s population, or 1.8 billion people, practicing the religion. However, according to the Pew Research Center, by 2050, the world’s Muslim population is projected to come close to equaling Christians which is currently an estimated 2.4 billion.
Between 2010 and 2050, the population size of Muslims is projected to grow 73%, while Christian population is expected to rise by 35%. The share of atheists and people who are not affiliated with any religion is likely to shrink further. Moreover, if trends continue, 10% of Europe’s overall population in 2050 will comprise of muslims, India will surpass Indonesia to have the largest Muslim population in the world, and Muslims will outnumber Jews in the United States, with Islam becoming the second largest religion in the country.
Economic Potential of the Muslim World
Despite the fact that the contribution of the Muslim world to the global economy – 8.51% of the world’s GDP – is disproportionate to the size of their population, the Islamic world is full of economic potential. The Middle East is home to 53% of the world’s proven oil and gas reserves, and these two natural resources account for 51% of all exports from this region. Among the top ten oil producing countries of the world, seven are members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). On the other hand, Iran has the second largest proven natural gas reserves in the world, and is only next to Russia.
The sheer magnitude of business activity in the oil industry in some of these countries can be gauged by the example of Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia. It is the second largest company in the world by revenue after Walmart, and generated $161 billion in profits in 2022, which was three times more than what Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) earned during the same year.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates are prominent exporters of oil. Several global corporations from the energy sector have invested in these countries over the last century. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has been in Saudi Arabia for the last 90 years and had a key role to play in the formation of what is today Saudi Aramco. British Petroleum, or BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) was at the forefront of oil discovery in the UAE in 1958 and produces more than 170,000 barrels of oil every day in Abu Dhabi today. Earlier this year in March, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) and BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) jointly offered to acquire 50% of the stake in Israeli natural gas producer NewMed Energy for $2 billion.
Middle Eastern companies are also making headways in the field of technology. Anghami Inc. (NASDAQ:ANGH) in 2022 became the first Arab company to be listed on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange after its merger with a special purpose acquisition company, Vistas Media Acquisition Co. Inc. The transaction was valued at $230 million. Founded in Beirut in 2012, Anghami Inc. (NASDAQ:ANGH) is the most popular music streaming platform in the Middle East and North Africa region, having more than 1.5 million paying subscribers. In 2022, Anghami Inc. (NASDAQ:ANGH) posted $48.1 million in revenues, at an increase of 35% compared to the previous year.
Muslim-majority countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia also offer investors plenty of opportunities to tap into these markets because of their talented, skilled resources coupled with the cheap cost of labor in these countries.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) today maintains offices in Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Indonesia. In 2021, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) announced that it was building a data center in Indonesia which it expects would raise the overall revenue of the company by $6 billion.
Kuala Lumpur, on the other hand, also entered into a $1 billion deal with Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) under which the latter will establish several data centers across Malaysia between 2021 and 2026. Likewise, there are several other technology and IT related companies as well that operate in this region and reap benefits of the Asian talent. Samsung, for instance, has begun manufacturing its top tier Galaxy series smartphones in both Bangladesh and Pakistan.
There is no shortage of natural resources in this region either. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) returned to Pakistan after a gap of nearly three decades in 2018, and now holds a 25% interest in a large offshore block with high exploration potential.
Contribution of Muslims to the United States
According to the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), the Muslim community in the United States held the most optimistic view of the direction their country was headed to among all groups they surveyed in the country. ISPU also identified that Muslims aged 25 or above in the U.S. are more likely to earn a college degree compared to others; 46% against 38%.
On the economic side of things, 8% of Muslims in the U.S. own businesses that have employed about 1.37 million Americans, with each business hiring an average of eight employees. The impact of the Muslim community is at its most profound in the New York City. A 2018 report by Muslims for American Progress highlighted that there are 95,816 businesses in the metropolitan area that are owned by Muslims, and have created more than 250,000 jobs. Muslim households contributed an estimated $17 billion in consumer spending in New York City in 2016. Nearly 40% of all taxi drivers and 57% of the street food vendors in NYC are Muslims.
Moreover, 9% of the doctors, 12% of pharmacists, and 11.3% of the engineers in New York City belong to the Muslim community, which is testament to their tremendous contributions to ensure the success and well-being of their city and fellow American nationals. There were 3.85 million Muslims in the United States in 2020, as per Pew Research Center. The figure is projected to touch 8 million by 2050, at an increase of 108%.
Methodology
The 25 countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2050 are ranked in ascending order of the increase in population of Muslims in these countries between 2020 and 2050. The projections are made by the Pew Research Center.
Let’s now head over to the list of countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2050.
Top 25 countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2050
25. China
Muslim Population in 2050: 35.29 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 7.28 million
Percentage Increase: 26%
Muslims are a minority in China, and make up only between 1-1.5% of the overall population. A majority of them are based around the Xinjiang province, and belong to the Uyghur and Hui ethnic groups.
24. Kenya
Muslim Population in 2050: 12.92 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 7.37 million
Percentage Increase: 132%
85% of Kenya’s population is Christian. Islam is the second largest religion in the African country with Muslim’s making up 10% of the overall population. The Muslim community’s numbers are expected to grow rapidly over the next three decades, and by 2050, they will comprise 13.3% of Kenya’s population.
23. Uganda
Muslim Population in 2050: 13.37 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 7.82 million
Percentage Increase: 141%
Uganda is an overwhelmingly Christian majority country, with a sizable Muslim minority – most of whom are based in the eastern and northern parts of the country. In 2050, 14% of Uganda’s population will be Muslim, compared to 12% in 2020.
22. Syria
Muslim Population in 2050: 31.22 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 8.63 million
Percentage Increase: 38%
93% of Syria’s population comprises Muslims. About three-fourths of them belong to the Sunni sect of Islam, followed by Shia Muslims at 13% and Alawites at 11%. It is among the countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2050.
21. Guinea
Muslim Population in 2050: 19.56 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 8.76 million
Percentage Increase: 81%
Guinea is a Muslim-majority country in West Africa, with a high birth-rate of 4.5 births per woman. The populations of all groups living in the country are projected to grow at similar rates between now and 2050. The religious demographics will remain just how they were in 2020, with 85% Muslims and 10% Christians.
20. Turkey
Muslim Population in 2050: 89.32 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 10.23 million
Percentage Increase: 13%
Turkey has a rich Islamic history and is popular across the world for its Ottoman architecture and mosques. 98% of the population identifies as Muslim, and this percentage is expected to be retained over the next three decades. Turkey is the most powerful country in the Middle East today. You can read more about this in our article, the 12 Most Powerful Countries in the Middle East Heading into 2024.
19. Malaysia
Muslim Population in 2050: 32.72 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 10.65 million
Percentage Increase: 48%
Malaysia is a country that is known for its religious coexistence, with Muslims, Buddhists, and Hindus living together in harmony. Islam is the most practiced and fastest growing religion in the country, with more than 66% of Malaysians identifying as Muslims. By 2050, this figure is projected to rise to 72.4%, while the share of Buddhists is forecasted to drop from 15.7% to 10.8%, whereas the Hindu population will see a slight dip to 5% in 2050 from 5.8% in 2020.
18. Saudi Arabia
Muslim Population in 2050: 42.49 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 11.8 million
Percentage Increase: 38%
Saudi Arabia is home to the holiest places in Islam, at Mecca and Medina. The country is the largest producer of oil in the Middle East and is one of the most powerful countries in the region. A vast majority of the country is Muslim, with about 90% belonging to the Sunni sect.
17. Senegal
Muslim Population in 2050: 27.56 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 12.08 million
Percentage Increase: 78%
Muslims make up 96.6% of Senegal’s population. By 2050, this figure will rise to 97.5% due to a 78% projected increase in the group’s population over the next three decades.
16. Somalia
Muslim Population in 2050: 26.10 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 13.99 million
Percentage Increase: 116%
Somalia has one of the highest birth rates in the world, with an average of 6.42 births per women. It is a predominantly Muslim country with 99% of the country practicing Islam as their religion. Their population is likely to more than double by 2050 and Muslims will hold their share of the population at 99% according to Pew Research Center.
15. Burkina Faso
Muslim Population in 2050: 32.20 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 17.96 million
Percentage Increase: 126%
Muslim population in Burkina Faso is likely to grow exponentially by 2050. Muslims currently make up about 63% of the overall population in the African country, while Christians make up a sizable minority and comprise 21.7% of Burkina Faso’s inhabitants. More than 15% of the population in the country are adherents of folk religions.
14. Mali
Muslim Population in 2050: 39.83 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 20.22 million
Percentage Increase: 103%
Mali is a Muslim-majority country in West Africa, where Muslims account for 95% of the overall population. Their size is projected to grow by more than 100% over the next three decades, but despite that, the share of Muslims in Mali will drop to 93.5% in 2050. The Christian population will remain at 2.4% like it is now. However, folk religions will see an increase from 2.5% in 2020 to 3.7% in 2050.
13. Ethiopia
Muslim Population in 2050: 57.96 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 21.67 million
Percentage Increase: 59.71%
Ethiopia is a religiously diverse country in Africa. 62% of the country’s population is Christian, whereas 36% identify as Muslim. Over the next three decades, the number of Muslims is likely to increase by over 21.5 million, after which the share of Muslim population in Ethiopia is likely to increase four percentage points to touch 40%. The Christian population is expected to drop to 58%.
12. Tanzania
Muslim Population in 2050: 43.25 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 22.30 million
Percentage Increase: 106%
Tanzania is one of the countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2050, both in terms of number and percentage of growth. According to projections by the Pew Research Center, Muslims will more than double in number in 2050, compared to the population size in 2020.
11. Sudan
Muslim Population in 2050: 64.72 million
Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2050: 26.29 million
Percentage Increase: 68%
Sudan is home to nearly 40 million Muslims, who make up about 97% of the country’s overall population. The size of the Muslim community is projected to grow by more than two-thirds by 2050.
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