Worst is Over. Now What?
Tue, Oct 8 2024, 4:31 PM
Good things happened in the bond market on Tuesday. There was a bit of a scare in the AM hours as a relatively flat overnight performance gave way to some early weakness, but buyers showed up at the 4.05% technical level in 10yr yields (a major inflection point on the way up in the first quarter of 2024). That doesn’t mean rates can’t go higher ever again, but this show of support effectively ends the sharp, initial phase of negative momentum that can follow big events like Friday’s jobs report. The baseline is sideways in a choppy range until we get the next compelling data. Don’t expect any major favors from Thursday’s CPI. Reasons for this are discussed in today’s MBS Live recap video.
10:11 AM
slightly weaker overnight with additional losses into 10am and modest bounce since then. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yre up 1bp at 4.04
12:48 PM
Back into positive territory with MBS unchanged and 10yr down 0.6bps at 4.024
03:40 PM
Very flat in the PM hours. MBS still unchanged and 10yr up 0.2bps at 4.032
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