Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger Data
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 3:36 PM
In this very “data dependent” environment, it was no surprise to see bonds initially lose some ground after this morning’s economic data came out stronger than expected (jobless claims at 216k vs 234k forecasts, specifically). But the selling wasn’t too severe and it didn’t last long. More importantly, bonds went on to improve steadily throughout the day. What gives?! In this case, the determining factor may be as simple as a deluge of corporate bond issuance artificially increasing bond yields over the first two trading days of the week, thus leaving traders in a better position to blow off some steam and adhere to the supportive ceiling implied by the most recent highs in mid-to-late August.
- Jobless Claims
- Labor Costs
- 2.2% vs 1.9% f’cast, 3.3% prev
09:53 AM
Initially weaker after claims data, but back in positive territory now. MBS up 2 ticks (0.06) and 10s down 1.2bps at 4.284.
11:49 AM
Modest additional strength. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr down 2 bps at 4.276.
02:41 PM
Fairly sideways since late morning rally. MBS up 6 ticks still (.19) and 10yr yield now down 3.2bps at 4.264.
03:33 PM
Best levels of the day now with MBS up a quarter point. 10yr near lows, down 3bps at 4.266.
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