Starbucks’s (SBUX) green siren seems to be lost at sea.
The coffee giant had its worst day in trading since March 2020, with shares down nearly 16% on Wednesday after reporting Q2 results that were hard to swallow. The company missed on all metrics (revenue, earnings, and same-store sales), with foot traffic declining across the globe.
Now, it aims to regain customers with various tactics like value offerings, menu innovation, and speedier service, but Wall Street pros tell Yahoo Finance they’re skeptical that the efforts will be enough to correct course.
“I actually think they’re going the wrong way … the business should simplify and focus on the core,” Jefferies analyst Andy Barish told Yahoo Finance over the phone. “They’re going in way too many directions at once, when the business is deteriorating.”
Citi analyst Jon Tower struck a similar tone in a client note. Starbucks is “putting a lot of oars in the water to try and paddle its way back to shore,” he wrote. “We are concerned … this is ignoring the true leak in the bottom of the boat.”
Its CFO, Rachel Ruggeri, told Yahoo Finance the decline in revenue was due to “occasional customers” pulling back on spending, which the company didn’t “respond fast enough” to.
She added that conflict in the Middle East and higher promotional environment in China also weighed on the quarterly performance.
When Yahoo Finance asked if Starbucks plans to lower prices, Ruggeri said, “We are not.”
Starbucks’s stock has plunged 35% in the past year, compared to the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) 22% gain.
Yet the company’s current plans are unlikely to substantively boost business in the face of tightening wallets.
“Traffic trends among this [occasional customer] cohort have been soft since mid-November,” Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull wrote in a note to clients.
Global foot traffic dropped 6% in the quarter, including a 7% decline in the US, which BTIG analyst Peter Saleh called “the worst in three years [for the US], on par with trends seen in 2008-2009, as value-seeking customers reduced frequency.”
In North America, the average ticket size increased 4% in the quarter. Ruggeri said the majority of it came from annual price hikes. In previous quarters, ticket size increased due to visitors adding food or customizing drinks.
Ruggeri argued that value “isn’t just about a price,” but about “experience.” The company plans to offer more discounts on the app and open it up to non-reward members in the hopes of attracting more loyalty members.
In Q2, Starbucks’s number of 90-day active loyalty members declined to 32.8 million, compared to 34.3 million last quarter.
Barish said he is “somewhat skeptical of of the near-term fixes,” while Tower wrote “there is broad consumer pushback” to Starbucks’s value equation.
The company is also unleashing a plethora of menu innovations — think boba tea-like pearls, zero to low-calorie energy drinks, more sugar-free syrups, and an egg, pesto, and mozzarella sandwich.
However, Starbucks’s latest new products have left consumers wanting. “We think recent menu innovation (Lavender, Oleato) simply haven’t been received well, even as management cites success there,” Barish wrote in a client note.
CEO Laxman Narasimhan called out speed of service as an area of improvement in the earnings call, citing that many shoppers don’t go through with their app orders due to long wait times or lack of product availability. A changing menu could put additional pressure on employees and store operations, noted O’Cull.
Others believe Starbucks’s star has simply fallen.
William Blair’s Sharon Zackfia downgraded the stock to Market Perform, saying its “significant reversal” in performance begs the question of “whether bigger — and tougher — issues are afoot such as if the company has overreached on price or if the brand’s appeal has lost some of its luster.”
Some on the Street have cut their price target but maintained a Buy rating.
“Starbucks is in a category of one, an established, global brand with good economics, no close competitor and a very desirable customer base, and issues like this have proven to be fixable and good buying opportunities over time,” Saleh wrote in a client note after cutting his price target to $100.
Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore also reiterated her Buy rating, as she expects earnings growth to reaccelerate in fiscal year 2025 once Starbucks’s newest initiatives “take hold.”
In total, there are currently 13 Buys, 23 Holds, and 1 Sell rating on the Street.
The company revised its 2024 outlook for the third time this fiscal year in its earnings call.
As of Q2, Starbucks expects 2024 global revenue growth of low-single digits, down from the previous range of 7% to 10%, which itself was down from a prior guidance of 10% to 12%.
Global and US same-store sales are expected to see a low single-digit decline or stay flat, down from the previous range of 4% to 6% growth. China’s same-store sales are expected to see a single-digit decline, down from the previously expected low-single-digit growth.
Starbucks originally expected same-store growth in the mid-single digits across its markets.
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Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.
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