Piper Sandler Chief Global Economist Nancy Lazar details her economic expectations for the second half of the fiscal year on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
Inflation rose more than expected in September as a spike in the cost of rent and food kept prices abnormally high for millions of U.S. households.
The Labor Department said Thursday the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods, including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in September from the previous month, a slight improvement from August but still more than expected.
Prices climbed 3.7% from the same time last year, coming in slightly higher than the 3.6% projected by Refinitiv economists.
Excluding the more volatile measurements of food and energy, so-called core prices increased 0.3% for the month and 4.1% on an annual basis, in line with expectations.
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Taken as a whole, the report painted a picture of extremely stubborn inflation that has been slow to retreat, even as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to the highest level in two decades.
“Just because the rate of inflation is stable for now doesn’t mean its weight isn’t increasing every month on family budgets,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with the Navy Federal Credit Union. “And that shelter and food costs rose particularly is especially painful.”
Here is a breakdown of where Americans are seeing prices rising and falling the fastest as they continue to wrestle with sticker shock.
Rising rents are a concerning development because higher housing costs most directly and acutely affect household budgets. (Gabby Jones/Bloomberg/File / Getty Images)
Rent
Housing costs were the biggest driver of inflation last month. Rent costs rose 0.6% for the month and are up 7.2% from the same time last year.
Rising rents are concerning because higher housing costs most directly and acutely affect household budgets. Another data point that measures how much homeowners would pay in equivalent rent if they had not bought their home climbed by 0.6% from the previous month.
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A customer shops for meat at a Safeway store in San Rafael, California, on April 12, 2023. (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)
Food
Food has been one of the most visceral reminders of red-hot inflation for Americans. In September, the cost of groceries increased for the sixth straight month.
Grocery prices climbed 0.1% over the course of the month, according to the data. On an annual basis, prices remain up 2.4% compared with the same time last year.
Consumers paid more for a number of items in September, with the price rising for bread (0.3%), beef and veal (0.6%), pork (1.6%), hot dogs (6.8%), milk (1.4%), citrus fruits (1.3%), butter (2.4%) and coffee (0.7%)
There were some substantial declines in food prices last month. The cost of ham, apples, bananas and fresh vegetables, including potatoes and lettuce, dropped in September.
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There was some good and bad news for Americans looking to buy a used car in August. (Chandan Khanna/AFP/File / Getty Images)
Energy
Energy prices inched higher in September, climbing 1.5% over the course of the month. That included an 8.5% rise in fuel oil and a 2.1% bump in gas prices.
Gasoline costs have been trending upward in the wake of major supply cuts by OPEC+.
The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline hit $3.83 last month, according to AAA. By comparison, gas prices fell to $3.64 on Thursday.
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Gas prices are expected to remain volatile amid the explosion of violence in the Middle East over the weekend.
“Volatility in energy and gasoline prices and stubborn housing and rent costs were the major driver of inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist. “Both are illustrative of the difficulties in restoring price stability in a timely fashion in general and given growing risks to oil prices linked to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East in particular.”
Cars
There was some good news for Americans looking to buy a used car in September.
An American Airlines flight takes off from Los Angeles International Airport. (Mike Blake/File / Reuters Photos)
Used car and truck prices, which were a major component of the inflation spike last year, fell by 2.5% over the month and are down by 8% when compared with the same time one year ago.
The cost of new cars and trucks, however, continued to march higher in September, climbing 0.3%. New vehicle prices remain up 2.5% year over year.
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Travel and Transportation
Airline fares rose for the second straight month in September, climbing 0.3%. Still, tickets remain down about 13.4% when compared with last year, according to the data.
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