Remember when former FBI director Robert S. Mueller III was going to find evidence that Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 election, and that was going to end Trump’s presidency?
Remember when Jan. 6, 2021, was going to end Trump’s political career in disgrace?
You can understand if Democrats started to feel like Wile E. Coyote, and that Trump had some Road Runner-like ability to wiggle off the hook, every time, no matter how dire his situation appeared. Scandals that would destroy other politicians did minimal if any damage to Trump, and he seemed immune from the natural consequences of the political world. Each time he survived, he added to a perception of invulnerability.
USA Today attempts to keep track of how many lawsuits Trump and his businesses have been involved in, either as plaintiffs or defendants. The count is at 4,095. Trump has lost his share, but few seemed to alter his fortunes, political or otherwise, not even when the civil jury in E. Jean Carroll’s defamation lawsuit found Trump liable both for sexually abusing Carroll and for defaming her.
Trump was the guy who always seemed to figure out how to get away with it, enjoying more Teflon than John Gotti and Ronald Reagan combined. The phenomenon seemed to surprise even Trump; in January 2016, he offered the uncomfortable joke “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay? It’s, like, incredible.”
But based on Thursday’s verdict, Trump shouldn’t head to Fifth Avenue with a firearm. (In fact, as a convicted felon, Trump can no longer possess a firearm.)
Late in the afternoon in a Manhattan courtroom, Trump’s legendary run of good luck and Houdini-like ability to escape the consequences of his actions ended. Yes, it’s conceivable that Trump’s conviction will be overturned. Trump will argue that he could never get a fair trial in Manhattan, and his conviction required a unique application of the law to qualify as a felony. It’s more than a bit rich that Trump’s conviction is in large part because his notoriously shady former aide Michael Cohen testified against him.
Then again, if you spend decades developing a reputation as a notorious, shameless and barefaced liar, you should not be surprised when a jury concludes you’re the kind of guy who would falsify a business record.
Falsifying business records to cover up hush money to Stormy Daniels is not the worst, biggest or most consequential thing Trump has ever done. Ask a typical Trump critic to list Trump’s most heinous and — ahem — deplorable acts, and they are unlikely to get around to mentioning the acts that led to this conviction.
But something significant changed this week. All Trump needed was one holdout juror for a hung jury and a mistrial. He needed just one person on that jury to feel that this was indeed a political witch hunt, that the prosecution’s witnesses were unreliable or that the government hadn’t proved that Trump knew all the details. Every single time before, someone has rescued Trump — NBC giving him a prime-time reality show, banks willing to give him loans on generous terms, Senate Republicans refusing to convict him in his impeachment trials, plaintiffs willing to settle out of court, foes imploding or stumbling or losing their nerve. The 45th president has lived one of the most charmed lives in American history.
And yet Trump’s luck, charm, brazen shamelessness, high-priced lawyers and money — it all came up empty, at least for now.
And Democrats have what they wanted, the headline “Donald Trump, convicted felon,” that will no doubt be appearing in President Biden’s ads from now until November. Will it sway the election? There’s reason to be skeptical. In an NBC News poll published in February, the sliver of voters who said a conviction would alter their vote in 2024 “hold overwhelmingly negative opinions about Biden, and they also prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points.” Those are the kinds of voters who will probably shift back to Trump by November.
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