The heart of Biden’s challenge: No matter how good the economic data is, voters remain disgruntled. A poll conducted last month by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business is representative: It found that only 26 percent of voters thought Biden’s policies had helped the economy.
Thus, the key components of their emerging plan: Acknowledge that prices are a problem and highlight what Biden is doing to bring them down. Focus less on the number of jobs created since he took office (even if this remains a source of pride) and more on the good wages those jobs are paying, an increase that’s especially large for those in lower-paid positions. Yes, the “wage premium” for college grads is falling. That means a Democrat can argue that his policies are lifting the living standards of working-class voters who were key to Trump’s rise.
Relatedly, Biden will draw a class line between the parties, much as Barack Obama did in his 2012 reelection campaign against Mitt Romney. Biden will juxtapose his “bottom-up and middle-out” approach to economic growth with the GOP’s eagerness to cut taxes on the rich. He’ll contrast the GOP’s desire to maintain low tax rates for the wealthy with his own commitment to continue pushing for expanded child care, elder care and enhanced family leave.
He is also drawing lessons from Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection effort. Recall that Clinton campaigned at the time against the right-wing leadership in the House and stressed how he stopped GOP cuts to “Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the environment.” An even more right-wing House will afford Biden targets of his own, and Trump’s call to repeal the Affordable Care Act (which Biden has strengthened) was an early holiday gift to Democrats. Protecting abortion rights, central to successful Democratic campaigns since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, fits in with this approach as well.
Other parts of Biden’s strategy for changing the trajectory are well-known, particularly warnings about the threat Trump poses to democracy. What’s received less attention is that critical coverage of Trump has broadened from his many legal troubles toward how he would undermine democratic rights by, for example, using government power to retaliate against his foes and destroying the civil service.
Trump has driven this change in the conversation with his own public statements. The extreme language that endears him to his base (e.g., his proud use of the word “dictator,” his reference to his foes as “vermin”) has inspired a spate of journalism making the factual and easily illustrated point that a second Trump term in office would be far more dangerous than his first.
Yes, this Biden strategy is premised on Trump winning the Republican nomination. If the ex-president fails, it would be back to the drawing boards. But no matter which opponent Biden will face, his advisers understand the need to go on offense on prices, which 82 percent of respondents in the Financial Times poll identified as their biggest source of financial stress.
“Under this president, the economy has performed as some said it could not,” Jeff Zients, Biden’s chief of staff, told me. “But the president knows prices are still too high. That’s why he is pulling every lever to go after junk fees that rip off families and bring down health care and energy costs” and to use “the bully pulpit to call out corporations who are failing to pass price savings along to consumers.”
An example: On Thursday, the administration took the first steps toward cutting drug prices and promoting more competition by seizing the patents of costly medications from drugmakers. He’ll also accelerate that campaign against junk fees, one of his most popular initiatives.
Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), a Biden ally, may provide another template with his war against what he calls “Greedflation” and the need to roll back corporate price hikes not justified by inflationary pressures.
Friday’s strong jobs report was certainly a milestone in the country’s remarkable success in taming inflation without falling into recession. Biden’s campaign was quick to draw a contrast with Trump’s jobs record. But his lieutenants also understand that bragging about the achievements of “Bidenomics” won’t be enough. That’s the first step toward changing the conventional wisdom.
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