Now is the golden hour of democratic change, the moment after the votes have been cast but before a theft of the outcome has solidified. It must not be squandered amid Mr. Maduro’s lies and distractions. The United States and every nation that values electoral competition, rule of law and democratic transfer of power has an obligation to recognize that the opposition are the true winners and to demand that Mr. Maduro submit to the will of the people. No temporizing, no maybes, no false negotiations. Protestations of “serious concern” are not enough.
To be sure, the national election commission, which Mr. Maduro’s allies control, said the president received 51.2 percent of the vote, compared to 44.2 percent for Mr. González, who headed the opposition ticket after the government denied Ms. Corina Machado the right to do so. However, anyone familiar with recent Venezuela history cannot credit this spuriously precise “tabulation.” Far more believable are exit polls showing that 65 percent of the people voted for the opposition, in keeping with previous opinion polls showing Venezuelans are sick of the Maduro regime’s corruption, repression and economic incompetence and want change. And that does not include the millions who have voted with their feet and left the country. The throngs who waited in long lines to cast their ballots obviously did not do so to uphold the status quo.
Mr. Maduro had long planned to suppress the free and fair expression of this sentiment through limitations on assembly and the media; on election day itself, officials barred international observers from the vote. Once the polls closed, the election commission began a public count — then suddenly, and suspiciously, stopped it because of what Mr. Maduro announced was a massive “hack” against the electronic transmission system. “The demons and the devils did not want the total to be completed,” he declared. This is an obvious smokescreen for rigging the election results, as was the subsequent government announcement of an investigation into the opposition for the purported hacking.
The stakes are enormous for what was once a prosperous anchor of all Latin America. Already, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled since 2014, one of the largest displacement crises in the world. If Mr. Maduro persists in clinging to power, another million or more may soon depart, creating a wave of desperate new arrivals at the borders of its South American neighbors and, eventually, the United States. Moreover, the United States made two attempts in recent years — once under President Donald Trump and once under President Biden — to advance democracy against Mr. Maduro’s dictatorship. Now the opposition has united and, at U.S. urging, tried to make the most of the limited and manipulated democratic opening Mr. Maduro — pressured by U.S. sanctions — permitted. If they fail, it will resonate around the world, and could set back Venezuela for many years.
And that will be especially true if the United States fails to support them. There are those in the United States who hint that it would be better to acquiesce to a Maduro power grab so as to assure U.S. access to Venezuela’s oil. This would be a betrayal of principle but also a misreading of this country’s true economic interest — since it is now the world’s leading oil producer and can afford to do without crude from Caracas.
Mr. Maduro probably will not hesitate to crack down if his opponents take to the streets. That is more or less what happened in Belarus in 2020, when frustration over stolen elections led to protests, which President Alexander Lukashenko crushed. Diplomacy, in the form of a negotiated “off-ramp,” including amnesty on corruption and drug charges for Mr. Maduro, might help avoid bloodshed — assuming Mr. Maduro could be interested in a deal. Or that his patrons in Iran, Russia and Cuba would countenance one.
Unfortunately, it’s more likely he will cling to power as dictators in the aforementioned countries, and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega — also a Maduro ally — have done. The United States and other democracies have invested heavily in a peaceful democratic transition for Venezuela. In that sense, this election is being stolen from them, too.
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