Now, if you are reading this newsletter, you probably follow political news closely — much more closely than a large segment of the electorate. You’d be surprised how many people know so little about the campaign. It might put things in perspective.
A recent survey from the Pew Research Center found “More than half of Americans (58%) say they are following news about candidates for the 2024 presidential election very or fairly closely. Another 28% say they aren’t following it too closely, and 13% aren’t following it closely at all.” Considering that many people do not want to admit they are not keeping up with current events, that is an extraordinary number (41 percent) of voters who openly acknowledge they are totally or partially checked out. They likely do not know about Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s flag flying or the Rafah strike that killed at least 45 people. Millions of Americans are unaware of dozens of other events that might seem as familiar to you as happenings in your own life. (If you find this weird, consider how much you know about a sport or activity in which you have no interest.) What they do “know” could also be wrong (e.g., we are in a recession).
And what is more, the distribution of the willfully uninformed is not even. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say they are closely following the election (64 percent) significantly outnumber Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (58 percent). This is unsurprising given that Democrats attract less regular voters.
Why is this significant? Well, many of the polls that newspapers feature in click-generating headlines are measuring the views of people who are paying little or no attention to the things pollsters are asking about. These are the same voters who have lessened their support for President Biden, despite their political affiliation. Even the New York Times has begun to concede that “disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the storyline about the election.” (Comically, for a paper that constantly hypes Biden’s problems, it now marvels, “Together, there’s a case for taking a glass-almost-half-full perspective on Mr. Biden’s chances. Right or wrong, it’s a case that maybe hasn’t gotten quite as much attention as it deserves.”)
Let’s put it this way: Pollsters and pundits are relying to a large extent on disengaged and unlikely voters — perhaps the last people they should pay attention to — to guide their crystal ball predictions. (The Times takes this one step further, conceding Biden is ahead in its own likely voter polling. Surprised? Even news-conscious voters might not know this since it does not fit the narrative of “Biden is losing!”)
Some of the disengaged respondents who are shaping coverage will not vote. Others will get more engaged and begin to learn about the candidates’ recent goings-on. Democrats not yet engaged may well return as they realize what’s at stake. When will they finally perk up? Maybe not until the conventions — or Labor Day. (“While millions of irregular voters will undoubtedly turn out this November, no one knows just how many of them will ultimately show up — let alone exactly which ones will do so,” the Times observes.)
This blind-leading-the-media phenomenon, among other reasons, is why polling — and, more so, the punditry based upon it — is of questionable value. Maybe we need more coverage of the stakes — the survival of our democracy — and a lot less of polls that are indicative of … well, we are not sure of what.
Two takeaways flow from understanding what polls are truly measuring and how tuned out a high percentage of voters may be. For starters, Biden’s “message” right now largely isn’t heard by disengaged voters. He cannot persuade people who are not listening. Pronouncements about his “messaging” (usual critical) don’t have much value until the people he needs to reach start listening.
Second, the challenge for Democrats will be to reach the disengaged who would normally lean their way. That means social media, nontraditional media (e.g., “The View”), turn-out-the-vote operations and making the most of high-interest events. (The Biden campaign, for example, announced a massive outreach to African American voters for the summer.) Fortunately for the future of our democracy, the Biden side has a real campaign with hundreds, if not thousands, of people on the ground whose job this will be. The Trump team? It has virtually none.
Distinguished person of the week
The Libertarian Party — yes, the party whose members sometimes get derided as a bit crackpot — provided a much-needed antidote to Trump’s fake bravado and phony aura of dominance, which are essential to maintaining his MAGA cult and frail ego. Appearing at the Libertarian Party convention last weekend, Trump was booed and heckled incessantly. The louder they booed, the angrier he got. As he does with others who refuse to bend the knee, Trump took to insulting the crowd. “Maybe you don’t want to win,” Trump said as boos rained down. “Keep getting your 3 percent every four years.”
The colorful coverage was far cry from the standard stenography (and repetition of inflated crowd size) we get from reports about his campaign appearances. The Guardian’s account was among the most vivid (and profane):
Trump’s rocky ride at a Washington hotel on Saturday night, including cries of “Bullsh–!” and “F— you!”, underlined the challenge that the Republican presidential nominee faces to broaden his appeal both left and right on the political spectrum.
“The fact is we should not be fighting each other,” Trump pleaded. “If Joe Biden gets back in, there will be no more liberty for anyone in our country. Combine with us in a partnership – we’re asking that of the libertarians. We must work together. Combine with us. You have to combine with us.”
The appeal went down like a lead balloon as delegates booed, jeered and shouted insults. It was a stunning rebuke for a man who has become accustomed to cult-like rallies where his every word is cheered to the echo.
After about a half-hour, Trump beat a retreat. But the humiliating reception might have had a lasting effect.
The next day, a member of Trump’s campaign posted a video of him waving to an empty parking lot at NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600. This seemed to be a rather lame attempt to make it appear that the stadium crowd in the background was cheering him. The image was roundly mocked on social media.
At any rate, the Libertarian Party convention attendees demonstrated the most effective technique in knocking Trump off his stride: Confront, mock and cut him down to size. That’s how you treat — and defeat — a bully.
The winner of the Booker Prize 2023, “Prophet Song” by Paul Lynch, is not for the fainthearted. Candidly, I picked it up my mistake, thinking is was a novel about the Irish Troubles of the 1970s. Actually, it’s about the authoritarian troubles we now agonize over, albeit set in Ireland in the not-too-distant future.
Lynch paints an absolutely terrifying vision of how authoritarianism gradually creeps up on a society and, in particular, a mother and her four kids. First comes the erosion of labor rights. Then comes the enactment of “emergency” powers. Then the lies. The press is pure propaganda, the truth unknown. And soon, the country is engulfed in a Kafkaesque tale of dictatorship, disappearances and, eventually, a civil rebellion.
Written in a stream of consciousness, the novel acts as a vise. You feel the walls closing in on the central characters, the cognitive dissonance and the fear of betrayal they experience. The analogy to our own time and place are compelling, albeit unsubtle. But the message is insightful: Recognize ill-intentions early. Authoritarian regimes only get worse with time. Take your future into your own hands.
Lynch’s thrilling, frightening and solemn novel should remind you, five months from an election that could send us down a scary road, that dictators and their cults count on passivity, disengagement and hopelessness. The time to stop them is before they take power.
Every other Wednesday at noon, I host a Q&A with readers. Submit a question for the next one.
Credit: Source link
