Well-armed ethnic insurgent groups have made substantial gains against the military across the country. The latest offensive began Oct. 27, when rebel groups in Myanmar’s Shan state succeeded in overrunning several townships, military outposts and border crossings with China. Separate ethnic insurgents have made similar gains in the Sagaing region in the northeast, in Chin and Rakhine states.
Unfortunately, the recent shift in battlefield momentum so far has not benefited the National Unity Government, the country’s shadow government in exile. The National Unity Government is mostly composed of jailed and exiled officials from the ousted National League for Democracy party of imprisoned Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, along with other activists. The group still holds Myanmar’s United Nations’ seat. But, inexplicably, the National Unity Government has struggled for recognition or support, including from the United States.
Myriad, often quarreling ethnic insurgent groups have plagued Myanmar’s border regions for decades — with their own agendas, weapons and sometimes clandestine outside support, particularly from China. Those groups now have the upper hand.
Most of these armed groups have sustained themselves for years through illicit business dealings, including trafficking people, narcotics, timber and wildlife. The upsurge of fighting in Shan state was prompted by China’s attempt to crack down on illegal cyber scam centers run by Chinese criminal gangs. The effort to topple Myanmar’s junta and restore democracy was hardly a factor.
Still, the Myanmar military is weakened, spread thin and facing battles on multiple fronts. Unable to move troops easily on the ground, the military has largely resorted to waging an air campaign, mostly bombing villages and killing innocent civilians. Rebel groups have also accused the junta of using chemical weapons, which, if confirmed, would amount to an even more serious breach of international law and norms and should be referred to the International Criminal Court.
Myanmar’s civil war has created a humanitarian nightmare. World attention is distracted by other pressing crises. But the fighting in Myanmar has left nearly 2 million people displaced within the country and more than 1 million more living as refugees in neighboring countries. At the time of the upsurge in fighting in Shan state, the United Nations said it had received less than one-third of the funds it needed to help civilians requiring assistance.
The United States cannot rely on Myanmar’s neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to take the initiative. The regional bloc has proved ineffective and irrelevant, stymied by its stubborn insistence on “consensus” and “noninterference” in each other’s internal affairs. ASEAN is hopelessly divided, with some countries opening dialogue with the National Unity Government and others still talking to the ruling generals.
The United States in November tightened its sanctions on the regime, cutting off American financial transactions with the state-owned oil company. (Though the move was overdue — the European Union sanctioned the company in February 2022 — and the United States stopped short of imposing full sanctions on the enterprise, which remains the regime’s key source of foreign revenue.) Also, in October, the United States joined Canada and Britain in sanctioning three additional entities and five individuals it said assisted the regime’s abuses of human rights. Earlier sanctions in August aimed to cut off supplies of jet fuel to the regime.
The junta is weakened. Further pressure could hasten a collapse. If this happens, it could lead to chaos, with rival ethnic armies controlling different regions and a vacuum at the center. China would likely respond by moving in to secure the regions along the border; China has already staged military exercises near Shan state. In the worst case scenario, Myanmar could become a failed state, which could exacerbate the problems of people trafficking and illicit drugs.
To stave off such eventualities, the United States should promote and prepare the National Unity Government, starting serious talks with representatives now. Officials with the group say they want a future Myanmar to be democratic and federal, recognizing the ethnic groups and guaranteeing minority rights. They need to be held to those commitments when crafting a new constitution, since they have the only way to stabilize Myanmar. The hard planning should begin now.
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