But the figurative became literal Saturday night in Butler, Pa. A would-be assassin’s bullet made a bloody mess of Donald Trump’s right ear — and, but for the grace of a fraction of an inch, it could have done worse. One rallygoer was left dead and two were critically injured. The 20-year-old shooter was killed by the Secret Service.
Instantly, the presidential contest was upended. The president’s struggling campaign had to put on hold the sharp shift it had been planning, including a massive negative ad buy for Trump’s coronation that begins here this week. It quickly scrambled to take down all of its advertising, and the president postponed a Monday trip to Austin, where he was to headline an event at the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library marking the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act.
Meanwhile, Republicans quickly seized their opening to reverse-engineer Biden’s central argument against Trump, which is that the former president and his far-right supporters are a menace to “the very soul of this country.” Trump’s allies rushed to the bulwarks to declare that Democrats have been ginning up violence with their rhetoric claiming Trump is a dictator-in-waiting who must be stopped at any cost.
For Biden, this is an especially paradoxical situation, given that he ran for president on a premise that he could lower the temperature of politics. He launched his successful 2020 campaign to unseat Trump with a video showing the infamous march in Charlottesville.
“In that moment, I knew the threat to this nation was unlike any I had ever seen in my lifetime,” Biden said in that video.
Now, the media has been blanketed with the instantly iconic photos of a wounded Trump, fist raised as he is evacuated from the rally stage with an American flag fluttering against the bright blue sky behind him. Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump adviser, shared the photo on social media, adding: “Now this is some real Iwo Jima s— right here.”
This imagery will no doubt play heavily in the Republican National Convention that begins here Monday. And it harmonizes with the former president’s portrayal of himself as victimized by a “weaponized” government. After his federal indictment last summer, Trump declared at a rally: “In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you — and I’m just standing in their way.”
History suggests Trump will get a boost in the public’s regard, at least temporarily. Ronald Reagan’s approval rating, which had been flagging before the attempt on his life in March 1981, shot up 11 percentage points in the days afterward. “While it is common for a president’s popularity rating to increase at a time of national crisis, the rise for Reagan appears as sharp as any yet recorded,” The Post wrote at the time.
Meanwhile, there could hardly be a worse moment for Biden to be compelled to redraw his strategy against Trump.
After last month’s calamitous debate performance, which deepened concerns about Biden’s frailty and advanced age, his own presidential nomination is in jeopardy from Democrats who believe he is leading the entire party to disaster in November.
All indications suggest Biden has a narrowing path to reelection. A poor performance at the top of the ticket could also jeopardize the party’s chances of holding on to its Senate majority and regaining control of the House — potentially setting up a situation in which a Trump restoration puts his party in control of all the levers of power in Washington.
Beyond the 2024 calculations that are taking place within both parties underlies a worrisome trend in today’s political environment. A significant and growing number of people believe that violence is justified if it achieves their political ends.
In April, a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that 1 in 5 U.S. adults agreed with the statement, “Americans may have to resort to violence in order to get the country back on track.” Other surveys show much the same. We saw that ends-justify-the-means sentiment play out with the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters seeking to overturn the results of the election that turned him out of office.
There is much to be learned in the coming days about what, exactly, put a young man with an assault rifle on a rooftop within range of a presidential candidate. But in some sense, none of that may matter. Politics doesn’t wait for facts when narratives are already set.
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