Yet Oct. 7 may be remembered as a hinge moment — such as 9/11 or Feb. 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine — in which an unspeakable tragedy first traumatizes but then allows people to look at the world with fresh eyes.
Extremism and deadlock have failed both sides. By launching a horrific attack on Israeli civilians, Hamas provoked a crushing military response, knowing thousands of innocent Palestinians would die. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to protect Israelis from Hamas’s horrors. The United States and Arab nations should prepare now for the day — as well as the week, month, year, decade and century — after the shooting stops, laying the groundwork to restart the process of creating two states, Israel and Palestine, that are not locked in perpetual conflict.
To his credit, President Biden has started, pushing Mr. Netanyahu in remarks Tuesday to accept a day-after plan that would put the Palestinian territories on a path to eventual statehood. Given his support for Israel’s military effort and the diplomatic cover he has given Mr. Netanyahu’s government, Mr. Biden has more pull in Jerusalem than any other world leader. Yet, on the same day, Mr. Netanyahu denounced the U.S. position, blasting the Oslo peace process under which the two sides had previously tried to negotiate a two-state deal. This rhetoric might play to his base of right-wing voters in the short run, but it proves, once again, that he plays politics with Israel’s long-term security interests and the prospects for peace.
Historically, Israelis have responded to terrorist attacks by increasing their support of right-wing parties. But this time appears different. According to one November poll, if elections were held tomorrow, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition would decline from 64 seats to just 45. Opposition parties would win 75 seats in the 120-seat chamber. Another survey found that optimism about Israel’s future has increased after the Oct. 7 attacks. This increase was most pronounced among left-wing Israelis, with 41 percent saying they were optimistic compared to only 21 percent in June.
If these trends hold, the Biden administration will have more to work with than seemed possible just weeks ago. Israelis might, finally, move beyond the evasions and temporizing of the long Netanyahu era. Mr. Netanyahu, nicknamed “Mr. Security,” was not able to deliver on his core appeal.
An Israeli commitment to a two-state solution, however, is only a precondition for progress. After Hamas, Gaza will need an administrator until elections can be held and to be a part of future talks with Israel. The best — really, the only — option is the Palestinian Authority, which runs parts of the West Bank. The group is, admittedly, unpopular among Palestinians and Israelis alike. But Arab nations have made clear that they will not play substitute for indigenous Palestinian rule. Though Palestinians’ support for Hamas has grown, the vast majority — under bombardment and in a time of war rife with misinformation — do not believe, or are not aware, that Hamas committed atrocities against Israeli civilians. When hostilities cease and Palestinians have the opportunity to take stock of what happened, a reckoning against a Hamas leadership that brought them to destruction might occur.
Such a reckoning is more likely if Palestinians have reason to believe in a brighter future. The United States will need Arab nations’ help, both in rebuilding Gaza and in giving legitimacy to a refreshed Palestinian Authority. Mr. Biden’s “bear hug” approach to Israel enables him both to support Israel’s legitimate self-defense and pressure the government to pursue it within limits, somewhat at the expense of U.S. standing as a neutral arbiter. Others will have to provide funding, help force reform of an aging and corrupt Palestinian Authority and press for elections as soon as practicable, so whichever entity is negotiating on the Palestinian side can claim to speak for its people. All this will depend on movement in Israel. Gulf nations have indicated they will withhold reconstruction funds and financial support for any Gazan governing authority if Israel refuses to commit to a road map for a two-state solution.
Mr. Biden should continue pressing Israel to conduct its Gaza military operations with maximal respect for civilian life, which has resulted in changes to Israeli tactics. He should also treat this moment as an unlikely opportunity, with care and caution — and a little bit of hope, too.
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