How Biden responds to these crises will be the best evidence whether he has the right stuff to continue for another term, or whether he should stand back and let a younger Democrat take on Donald Trump. These are wicked problems, all with big political risks. But a strong chief executive uses political power decisively — overcoming obstacles and defying criticism — to do the job.
Let’s start with the war in Gaza. Biden has known for weeks that the essential next step is an extended pause in fighting, accompanying a hostage-release deal, that would begin a process of de-escalation across the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has all but told the president to stick it; he’s balking at hostage-release talks in Cairo and evidently wants to keep fighting, perhaps through the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which is a recipe for an even worse disaster.
Biden needs to face Netanyahu down. The interests of the United States and Israel — not to mention the Palestinians — converge on a hostage-release deal that allows a pause in fighting of six weeks or more. Biden needs to twist every arm and call in every debt to make this deal happen. Netanyahu is deeply unpopular at home; if he defies an American president, he’s likely to lose.
With a pause in fighting, a new world can begin to open for Israel and the Middle East. Biden’s team has the package ready: Saudi normalization of relations with Israel, reform of a revitalized Palestinian Authority, agreement on a credible pathway to a future Palestinian state, with performance metrics that will reassure Israelis. Let Hamas fester in its underground warren, while the United States, the European Union, the Arab world and Israel begin shaping a postwar order. Time to get on with it.
Biden’s second test is Ukraine, which is nearing the breaking point in its struggle against a brutal invasion. Republicans, shamefully, are bowing to a Russian dictator. What should the president do? I think he should use every instrument of executive power to pressure Republicans to provide the military aid that could allow Ukraine to push Russian troops back. Failing that, he must help Ukraine craft a strategy to protect the territory it holds.
Putin talked last week about a negotiated settlement. I doubt he’s interested in anything other than Ukrainian capitulation, but go ahead and test him. It’s likely that more than a 100,000 courageous Ukrainians have died in this terrible war. Biden should keep banging on Congress to do the right thing and stand by Kyiv to the end. History will praise his fortitude and damn those who want to abandon Ukraine.
Let’s turn finally to the border mess that has poisoned American politics for a generation. Republicans have been unabashed opportunists in exploiting the latest surge of migrants, which totaled about 300,000 in December. But, hey, that’s what Republicans do.
Biden should take this issue away from the GOP. He should use every ounce of his authority to restore firm but humane control along the border. Having an enforceable border isn’t immoral; it’s a condition of stable political life. The Biden administration has dithered too long, understandably angering the country.
What could Biden do without legislation? A lot, actually. For starters, he could create a bar to entry for migrants who are smuggled across the border. Finding legal evidence that a poor migrant paid for a border crossing will be hard, so begin by catching and prosecuting the smugglers themselves.
He also could toughen asylum procedures by executive order. He could give asylum officers more authority to order expedited removal, rather than letting cases slide into what can often be a six-year wait for a legal ruling. He could increase the U.S. military’s role at the border, beyond the 800 soldiers who are currently helping the Department of Homeland Security with logistics.
These executive actions would stem the flow of migrants, but to be truly effective, they would require resources — such as more asylum officers — that the GOP apparently won’t provide.
The quickest fix would be for Biden to use his emergency authority under Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act to close the southern border outright. That’s a nuclear option that would expose desperate people to nightmare conditions (and it would face a legal challenge). To soften the humanitarian impact, Biden could use his executive authority to charter planes and buses to send home migrants rejected for asylum.
A president who could surmount these three crises would demonstrate his fitness to govern. But Biden would still be, as he admitted himself last week, an “elderly man.” Given that, if he sticks with his decision to seek reelection, he has a responsibility to have a running mate the country would judge a worthy successor.
Biden needs to look deep into his heart as he decides the right course. As does Vice President Harris. Risking the catastrophe of a second Trump presidency would be an act of irresponsibility and selfishness. Good leaders don’t gamble with the country’s future.
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