For starters, it is hardly good news for the party out of power when the election already revolves around the challenger’s fitness, rather than the incumbent’s performance. Past presidential challengers such as Mitt Romney, John McCain, John F. Kerry and Al Gore did not have the extra hurdle to prove they were sane, law-abiding and pro-democracy. Trump does, and he reinforces those concerns whenever he opens his mouth.
Consider the heavy baggage that comes with Trump. With less than 55 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and Iowa, his results were underwhelming for someone with near universal name recognition. GOP turnout in Iowa was mediocre at best; in New Hampshire, independents turned out in droves but Republicans made up a surprisingly small share of the primary electorate. His weakness among independent voters in New Hampshire should worry Republicans. A small group of committed followers does not mean widespread enthusiasm for the candidate.
Moreover, Trump seems more confused, incoherent and feeble than ever. Mistaking former president Barack Obama for President Biden, confusing Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley, running on about a made-up questions on a cognitive test (very meta, for him) and getting his world wars mixed up give the impression he’s slipping. Former representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) posted on X, “His confusion and lack of awareness is a trend. He’s aging very fast. I hope his family is getting him the help he needs.” Ouch. Imagine if Biden committed even one of these goofs — or slurred his words as Trump periodically does.
Beyond that, large numbers of Republicans (and independent voters) say they will not vote for him if he is convicted of a crime. There’s a good chance that will happen in either the New York business falsification case or in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot case. Along the way, outbursts, temper tantrums and bullying courtroom antics akin to those he has displayed in his civil cases will be in the news. And he’s likely to repeat some tirades on courthouse steps. No doubt he will consistently reinforce the perception that he is erratic, irrational, vengeful and unstable. He seems incapable of controlling himself.
And, don’t forget, a jury in E. Jean Carroll’s civil case already found him to be an inveterate liar and sexual attacker. A second E. Jean Carroll verdict against him for defamation is likely coming. And the New York case of fraudulent business valuations might underscore his compulsion to inflate his ego with more lies. “Repeatedly adjudicated liar” is not the moniker you want as a candidate.
Considering Trump’s specific promises to pursue dictatorial powers, his repeated praise for tyrants, the cast of misfits he would bring to the White House and his actual record (e.g., lost jobs, hundreds of thousands of avoidable covid-19 deaths), his likely opponent, Biden, has an embarrassment of riches. You can then throw in the GOP’s abysmal elections record over the past few years, its losing streak on abortion, House Republicans’ pitiful legislative record and the shrinking number of White Christian evangelicals (his core base of support). It sure does not seem like favorable political terrain for the probable GOP nominee.
Finally, the public is catching on to the economy’s strength. And as the Wall Street Journal reported, there is a good chance things get even better. (“Now Americans are bucking up as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve signals that interest-rate increases are likely behind us. And with the solid labor market putting money in the bank accounts of freely spending consumers, recession fears for 2024 are fading.”)
Sure, Trump might win in November. Tens of millions of people have been drawn into a fascist movement and have lost their grip on reality (as Romney has pointed out). But we should not confuse the unbreakable support Trump derives from cultist members with general election viability. Looking at the totality of the evidence, chances appear just as high that the former president will lose — and by a larger margin than he lost in 2020.
Democrats benefit from not getting overconfident, but they need to get a grip: Their side has many fewer problems than does the MAGA movement.
Distinguished person of the week
Gadi Eisenkot, an Israeli war cabinet minister and former head of the Israel Defense Forces, recently spoke out against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s increasingly untenable management of the war against Hamas. “Whoever speaks of absolute defeat is not speaking the truth,” Eisenkot said in an interview on Israeli TV, during which he criticized Netanyahu’s insistence on “total” victory. “That is why we should not tell stories.” Eisenkot continued: “I am already at the stage and at an age where I do not trust this or that leader with my eyes closed, and I judge a man by his decisions and the way he leads the country.” In other words, he distrusts Netanyahu.
He also slammed Netanyahu for refusing to consider a realistic postwar plan for Gaza. “You have to show leadership in the ability to tell the truth to people, the ability to chart a path,” Eisenkot said. He plainly thinks Netanyahu’s days as prime minister are numbered: “It is necessary, within a period of months, to return the Israeli voter to the polls and hold elections in order to renew trust because right now there is no trust. … As a democracy, the state of Israel needs to ask itself after such a serious event, ‘How do we continue from here with a leadership that has failed us miserably?’” Eisenkot even suggested that keeping a prime minister widely distrusted is as big a problem as possibly swapping leadership during the war.
Eisenkot, who lost a son in the current war, reflects Israelis’ deep disillusionment and anger with Netanyahu. Biden, in dealing with the increasingly recalcitrant prime minister, might want to start having conversations with Eisenkot or with opposition leader and war cabinet member Benny Gantz. They are much more in tune with Israeli opinion — and might well be around long after Netanyahu retires in disgrace.
I find nothing as cinematically satisfying as film noir. Whether part of the original genre (“The Big Sleep,” “Double Indemnity”) or a modern adaptation (“L.A. Confidential”), these films’ colorful characters and snappy dialogue never lose their appeal. One gets hooked on the character types — crooked cops, put-upon private eyes and tough-as-nails women (often a “fallen woman,” as in “Notorious”). The tone is dark and cynical; the ending sometimes bleak. And if the plots do not always hang together or the music is just a little too melodramatic, well, that is all part of the charm.
Now, imagine if you could update one of the best, 1941’s “The Maltese Falcon,” with one of the most iconic heroes, Sam Spade, and place it in a gorgeous French setting circa 1963. Well, voilà! You get the delightful “Monsieur Spade,” a short series on AMC. With perfectly cast Clive Owen as an aged and recently widowed Spade (channeling but not imitating Humphrey Bogart), the show picks up where “Maltese Falcon” left off. “The Maltese Falcon’s” femme fatale, Brigid O’Shaughnessy, has died, leaving Spade to deliver her daughter to her father, who supposedly lives in a small town in the south of France. When you throw in murders, former Nazis, a slovenly police chief and an appropriately detestable villain, you have all the elements for engaging TV.
As in all great film noir, the minor characters — the snippy grandmother, the sarcastic housekeeper, the witty mother superior, the cabaret owner in a horrible marriage and the itinerant painter — provide ample amusement. One hopes there will be more seasons to follow. That would be the stuff that dreams are made of.
Every Wednesday at noon, I host a live Q&A with readers. Read a transcript of this week’s Q&A or submit a question for the next one.
Guest: Are there any lessons from the DeSantis campaign operation? What do you think the most important lessons are for future presidential campaigns to take from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s utter failure? Beyond, you know, “have a likeable candidate who isn’t weird.”
Jennifer Rubin: Well, that’s a big one! Also, don’t confuse Fox News obsessions (e.g., wokeness) with issues people care about; don’t ignore mainstream press; don’t debut on a wacky billionaire’s social media platform; don’t avoid attacking the front-runner; don’t undertake a presidential campaign with your home-state cronies; and don’t mess with the Mouse.
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