But for Ukraine, the stakes are even higher.
More than two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine is still fighting valiantly against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s relentless assault. Putin is targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by mercilessly launching missiles and drones into Ukrainian territory. After a six-month delay caused by inaction in Congress, U.S. military aid to Ukrainian forces is flowing again, but the defenders are still outmanned and outgunned.
“We need to secure our cities,” President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, told a small group of reporters in Washington this week. “For us, this is the most important thing. And we are looking for some serious and strong decisions from the Washington Summit.”
NATO leaders will reportedly announce a new NATO office in Kyiv, which will be touted as a “bridge” to membership in the alliance. They are also expected to announce a joint commitment of about $40 billion in financial assistance for Ukraine for 2025. This is a not-so-subtle attempt to hedge against the risk that former president Donald Trump could return to office. No one knows what Trump would actually do if elected, but he has threatened to withhold aid to pressure Ukraine into negotiations.
Ukraine wanted more, including a formal step toward membership, similar to the milestone it recently reached with the European Union. But after Zelensky’s complaints almost derailed last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania, Ukrainian officials won’t publicly air their frustrations. Instead, Ukrainian leaders are pushing for more concrete items that could make a difference on the battlefield. Ukraine desperately needs more air-defense systems, Yermak said. There are promises from allies to send Ukraine more Patriot missile systems, but no clear idea of how many will be delivered or when.
“We want to have a really strong political commitment to make sure that necessary deliveries will be agreed and done before the end of the year,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said.
Ukrainian leaders are also asking the Biden administration to further reduce restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons on military targets inside Russia. The White House in May decided to allow Ukraine to use some U.S. weapons against some Russian targets that were involved in the offensive on Kharkiv. But the Ukrainians are still not allowed to use U.S. weapons against Russian air bases being used to launch attacks against several Ukrainian cities.
“Stop having Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind their back. They are artificially restraining Ukraine from defending itself,” House Intelligence Chairman Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio) told me in an interview. He led a congressional delegation to Ukraine this week.
The White House is concerned that allowing Ukraine to expand strikes inside Russia could be provocative. But Putin is already being provocative, Turner said: “Ukraine needs intelligence about valid military targets inside Russia and approval to do so.”
To be sure, the Biden administration has done a lot for Ukraine. At last month’s Group of Seven Summit, Biden and Zelensky signed a 10-year security agreement. The administration is working on plans to give Ukraine another $50 billion in loans, backed by frozen Russian assets held in Western banks. But there is still a gap between Ukrainian goal of retaking as much of its territory as possible and the U.S. plan for Ukraine, which is focused on holding the line.
By deepening Ukraine’s integration with NATO, next week’s summit itself is a rebuke to Putin’s insistence that the war be settled on his terms, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told me. “We must continue to signal — on a bipartisan basis — that Russia does not have a veto over Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations,” she said.
But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. With Trump’s possible return looming, the best way to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security is to give Ukraine more capability to actually defeat Russia. That means speeding up delivery of air-defense systems, fighter planes, longer-range rockets, and helping Ukraine develop its own defense production to reduce its dependence on the West.
Biden should also use the NATO summit to explain to the American people why Ukraine’s success matters for U.S. national security interests. The more Americans understand that stopping Putin in Ukraine is safer and cheaper than waiting for him to attack NATO later, the harder it will be for Trump — or any future administration — to undermine that mission.
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