Biden’s job approval ratings also augur an easy win. He may be stuck around 41 percent approval among the public at large, but his approval among Democrats remains high, averaging between 76 and 85 percent in recent polls. He holds a commanding lead in primary polls, leading author Marianne Williamson by a 70-9 margin in the RealClearPolitics average.
So why should Biden care about Phillips? It’s simple: Lots of Americans, including many Democrats, don’t want the president to run again.
A recent Yahoo-YouGov poll shows this clearly. Only 55 percent of Democratic primary voters said they wanted Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024. Thirty-six percent said they wanted someone else while another 14 percent said they were not sure. Those are terrible numbers for any incumbent, especially because they come while no serious party figure is making a case against him.
A recent Messenger-HarrisX poll similarly found that 45 percent of Democrats don’t want Biden to run again. And, according to the Economist-YouGov poll, only 55 percent of Democrats do want Biden to run again. Democrats might be willing to vote for him, but many — if not most — would prefer not to.
These numbers are even worse among independents. The Yahoo-YouGov poll found only 28 percent of independents who lean Democratic want Biden to run again; 57 percent wanted someone else. Among all independents, the Economist-YouGov poll found only 16 percent wanted Biden to run again versus 65 percent who wanted someone else. This should make Biden’s team nervous, because in most states, these voters can participate in the Democratic contest without having to register with the party.
Phillips, therefore, need only present himself as a receptacle for unease about Biden. Most voters who cast their ballots for him probably won’t actually want him to win; instead, they will use him to send a clear message to the party: anyone but Biden.
The question is, how many people are willing to take that option? Biden’s support was as low as 60.4 percent on Oct. 11 against Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. before the latter became an independent candidate. That was true even though 50 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents had an unfavorable view of Kennedy and 59 percent had never even heard of Williamson. Phillips won’t start with much name identification, but he also won’t be hampered by Kennedy’s history of anti-vaccine hysteria or Williamson’s kooky progressive politics.
Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Biden’s polling doesn’t improve and Phillips and Williamson get around a third of the Democratic vote in the early contests. Normally, winning by 2-1 would be a landslide victory, but such numbers would be historically low for an incumbent president. President Donald Trump received at least 86 percent in every contest in 2020. Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton similarly won 80 percent or better in their reelection bids.
One must go back to 1992 to find an incumbent who won state primaries with numbers as low as two-thirds of the vote. This man, George H.W. Bush, went on to lose reelection, in part thanks to a strong third-party candidate.
Democratic leaders should also keep in mind that Ford and Carter lost their reelections despite winning the nomination. The history is clear: Messy primaries forecast general election defeats.
Biden is already slightly behind Trump, the GOP’s presumptive nominee, in national polling. Imagine the alarm bells that will go off if he can’t convincingly win his own party’s primaries. The rumblings about Biden needing to step aside would grow to a roar, especially if he continues to trail Trump in the polls.
Phillips is not a charismatic, ideological challenger such as Reagan, Kennedy or Buchanan. But concerns about Biden’s age and competence might make this year different. If Biden can’t put Phillips away easily in the first four states, expect Super Tuesday to be a donnybrook.
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