Former president Donald Trump proved emphatically on Thursday why preventing another Trump presidency is the paramount consideration. Mr. Biden faces a personal decision but also a presidential one: What would be best for the country, his personal feelings notwithstanding?
Despite the tenor of some of the insta-reaction to the debate, the choice is not easy. Mr. Biden clinched enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination three months ago. The only way Democrats can nominate someone else at their convention in Chicago seven weeks from now is if the president chooses to step aside. And that would be complicated. Whether it would be more chaotic than Mr. Biden remaining in the race is answerable only if one concludes things can’t get worse.
Mr. Biden bowing out would not guarantee a Democratic victory in November. History does not provide any precise precedents, but it’s notable that Republican challengers prevailed in 1952 and 1968 after Presidents Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson both opted not to seek reelection. In the second case, the Democratic convention — also in Chicago that year — descended into chaos amid protests over the war in Vietnam. The party wound up nominating Johnson’s vice president, Hubert H. Humphrey.
Finding a suitable replacement this year, at the last minute, would be more difficult than it was in 1968, and the eventual candidate could emerge politically wounded, as Humphrey did. Mr. Biden has papered over schisms in the Democratic coalition — between progressives and traditional liberals, democratic socialists and socially conservative minority voters — that would instantly widen into chasms at an open convention. Turning automatically to Vice President Harris, who has struggled to grow into the No. 2 job after running a lackluster presidential campaign of her own five years ago, would pose risks, too.
So what’s the 2024 Democratic Party to do? In this day and age, imposing a ticket from on high won’t cut it. The best scenario, should Mr. Biden drop out, would be for the party to invite several interested candidates to consider running and ask them to spend the next seven weeks in a series of debates. The convention would then be thrown open to these candidates. The deciders would be Democratic convention delegates, not primary voters. But the process would be transparent.
Yet it would take even more than Mr. Biden’s assent for this to happen. Ms. Harris would have to be willing to join in an open race, betting that she would rise to the top. In other words, it would require a degree of patriotism and self-sacrifice that is too often missing from modern politics (any politics, actually).
If Mr. Biden successfully passed the torch, he might be remembered as a 21st-century Cincinnatus — a laudable president who shepherded the country out of the covid-19 pandemic, returned a sense of normalcy following the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection, rallied the West to defend Ukraine against Russia’s full-scale invasion, and signed into law ambitious national climate and industrial plans. If he sticks it out and loses this fall, he risks a different sort of legacy, akin to the late justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose refusal to retire while Barack Obama was president led directly to Roe v. Wade being overturned.
Worse, the country would face the consequences of a second Trump term. Mr. Trump lied repeatedly during Thursday’s debate, but he did so coherently and with ease. Mr. Biden was no match on the split-screen. Making a credible case against Mr. Trump requires a vigorous opponent. Mr. Biden didn’t just suffer a senior moment or two. He repeatedly failed to rebut Mr. Trump’s fire hose of falsehoods.
Mr. Biden sounded better at a rally in North Carolina on Friday. His defenders point out that he performed well during his State of the Union address in March. There is ample precedent for incumbents losing a first debate and going on to win reelection. If he forges ahead, Mr. Biden would have four months to rebut fears about his mental acuity and physical stamina. But occasional good performances are a shaky reed on which to balance an election of titanic consequence.
Little good ever came from panicking. Mr. Biden cannot be coerced into doing something he doesn’t want to do. Nor should he be. What he can do is what many Americans are doing this weekend — wondering whether he is up to the job.
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