No Way to Know What CPI Looks Like Until We See It
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 3:14 PM
Monday was very much a placeholder in the grand scheme. The same could be said for most of last week as well. As the Fed and the market wait to refine their sense of the rate trajectory, there are only so many reports capable of setting the tone for weeks on end. CPI is one of them and tomorrow’s installment will be the first true big ticket data since the jobs report. It’s always tempting to imagine that there’s some way to reliably predict a slightly stronger or weaker result, but that same sentiment is shared by many other market participants and professional forecasters. The net effect is a market that’s priced to perfection based on the forecast consensus. Translation: it’s anyone’s game on Tuesday morning. We know the reaction could be big. We do not know the direction.
10:09 AM
No data or market movers so far. MBS up 1 tick (0.03). 10yr up 0.4bps at 4.181.
11:58 AM
Some weakness into 11am, but stabilizing now. MBS and Treasuries both right in line with last update.
02:27 PM
Gains into 2pm and pulling back a bit now. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.166
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