Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pushed bonds into weaker territory. Fortunately, it wasn’t that big of a beat and bonds bounced back gradually by the end of the day. That’s not to say all eyes were on data all day. If anything, month-end trading and positioning considerations ahead of tomorrow’s events are just as relevant. Those events include Treasury’s final quarterly refunding announcement in the AM and the Fed in the afternoon. While we always need to be ready for big moves after the Fed, it’s hard to imagine what this announcement could do to be anything other than predictable. The only wild card is a discussion on future changes to quantitative tightening in Powell’s press conference.
- Case Shiller Home Prices (y/y)
- 5.4% vs 5.8% f’cast, 4.9% prev
- FHFA Home Prices (y/y)
- Job Openings (via JOLTS)
- 9.026m vs 8.750m f’cast, 8.925m prev
- Case Shiller Home Prices (y/y)
09:35 AM
Stronger in Asia. Weaker in Europe and now bouncing back. 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.05. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
10:13 AM
Some weakness after JOLTS. 10yr unchanged at 4.078. MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
12:19 PM
Decent recover off weakest levels. 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.074. MBS down 3 ticks (.09).
02:48 PM
Back into positive territory ahead of the 3pm CME close. 10yr yield down 1.8 bps at 4.06. MBS up 1 tick (.03).
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