When is interest rate momentum flatter than you can possibly imagine? Today.
We only break out the sarcastic and paradoxical juxtaposition of “sharply sideways” when things have really ground to a halt and with each of the past 3 days falling inside a 0.01% range, it’s that time again.
This happens, but it’s rare. And it’s especially rare when rates have moved at one of the fastest paces on record in the preceding 6 weeks.
Does it mean anything significant? It doesn’t mean anything bad. In fact, it’s arguably a good thing for rates to be able to hold a stable, sideways range that’s right in line with the lowest levels in 7 months WITHOUT any token attempt at a corrective bounce.
In other words, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see rates jump a bit after falling as much as they had by last Thursday. If there’s an x-factor that helps explain the phenomenon, it could be as simple as the second half of December typically being a lower conviction trading environment.
A word of caution: a recent track record of low volatility is not a guarantee that it will continue. The late December trading environment can also be prone to random volatility, but if that happens, it wouldn’t likely be on a grand scale. Those sorts of bigger risks and opportunities would require input from the more important economic data in the first half of January.
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