The average mortgage lender is quoting a top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate that is nearly a quarter of a percent lower than the same scenario last Friday. Granted, big moves like this are more common after hitting multi-decade highs, but today’s example has other motivations.
Specifically, the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza conflict prompted some excess demand for safer haven assets like US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Perhaps more importantly the conflict creates geopolitical uncertainty that is seen as one more reason for the Fed to “wait and see” when it comes time to decide whether to hike rates one more time in 2023 or not.
Last but not least, today’s rate movement was bigger than it otherwise might have been due to the bond market holiday. Most mortgage lenders did not update their rate offerings yesterday, thus facing the need to account for an additional day of global events. Frequently, this wouldn’t matter, but things are different when global events are having a big impact.
Regardless of the new motivations behind today’s rate rally, old motivations are still important. Specifically, if economic data falls far from expectations in the coming days, rates would likely react–especially for Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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