“Lower volatility and more sideways momentum” have been the themes as we’ve moved away from last week’s more consequential economic data. The underlying bond market has been microscopically stronger since then and that’s resulted in microscopically lower rates.
But for all intents and purposes, rates have simply been flat at 2 month lows for about a week and today did very little to change that. At the risk of reiterating the same message again, there aren’t any obvious reasons for that to change until we get some more important economic data–something that won’t unequivocally be the case until the first week of December.
The bond market and mortgage lenders will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. The bond market is technically open for a half day on Friday, but not every mortgage lender will be publishing rate sheets. Those who do may employ different strategies than normal, so you’re essentially waiting for next Monday before truly knowing how mortgage rates are evolving in the short term.
Again, we’re not expecting a great deal of “evolution,” but anything’s possible. The safest conclusion is to assume there’s an infinitely greater risk/chance of big movement during the following week–especially after the jobs report on Friday, Dec 8th.
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