The average mortgage lender was fairly close to their lowest levels of the past 2 months by yesterday afternoon and today saw almost no change. That’s a departure from the recent trend of larger movements, but also an expected shift given the absence of big ticket economic data.
Big ticket data refers to the scheduled economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which was responsible for the largest portion of this week’s improvement and Retail Sales which pushed back in the other direction the following day.
Thankfully, Retail Sales wasn’t nearly up to the task of spoiling the good times for interest rates this week. The next data with the power to help or hurt in any major way won’t arrive until the first full week of December. In the meantime, the baseline scenario is for lower volatility in a more sideways trend.
The only caveat is that Thanksgiving week can occasionally see very random volatility that is not connected to underlying events or data. This is a byproduct of the less robust trading environment on major holiday weeks. All that to say, even if it seems that rates are on the move next week, it could just be an illusion that requires confirmation or rejection 2 weeks later.
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