More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:16 PM
The winning streak continues for the bond market with 10yr yields dropping roughly 6bps by the 3pm close, just barely edging under the 4.34% technical level. Improvement was linear through 2pm with only a temporary volatile reaction to the JOLTS data. It’s not entirely clear that the mid-day gains had anything to do with JOLTS, in fact. It’s just as easy to argue that the bond market is taking a lead-off in anticipation of softer economic data ahead. That’s all well and good unless the data finds a way to surprise to the upside, but even then, some hope would be held out for the next CPI report next Wednesday.
- Job Openings (via JOLTS)
- 8.059m vs 8.34m f’cast, 8.355m prev
- Lower = better for rates
- Job “Quits”
- 3.507m vs 3.329m prev
- lower = better for rates
- Job Openings (via JOLTS)
08:58 AM
moderately stronger overnight thanks to Europe. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.355
10:05 AM
Modest gains after mixed JOLTS. MBS up an eighth. 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.343
01:56 PM
Modest additional gains into the PM. 10yr down 7bps at 4.321. MBS up an eighth in 6.0 coupons and nearly a quarter in 5.5 coupons.
04:06 PM
Off the best levels, but holding most of the gains. 10yr down 6.1bps at 4.33 and MBS up 5 ticks (.16).
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