Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 4:12 PM
Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail Sales (the day’s only big-ticket market mover) didn’t provide much help for bonds. The catch was that the key internal component (the control group, aka retail sales excluding autos/gas/building materials) was stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground on the news, but began to rally about 30 minutes later. The net effect was essentially a restoration of Friday’s average mid-day trading levels, thus making for a ho-hum Monday.
- Retail Sales
- 0.2 vs 0.6 f’cast, -0.9 prev
- Retail Sales “control group”
- NY Fed Manufacturing
- -20 vs -0.75 f’cast, 5.7 prev
- Business Inventories
- 0.3 vs 0.3 f’cast, -0.2 prev
- NAHB Builder Confidence
- Retail Sales
08:35 AM
Weaker after retail sales, but a hair stronger on the day. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.311.
12:28 PM
Nice recovery for reasons unknown (some big trades at 9:20am, but that’s about it). MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.265
03:31 PM
Losing some ground in the PM hours, but still slightly stronger. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.6bps at 4.307
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