Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:12 PM
We knew that today’s JOLTS and ISM reports were likely to cause a reaction if they were much higher or lower than expected. ISM ended up coming in right in line with forecasts, but job openings fell more significantly. At 8.733m, it was not only the lowest reading in more than 2 years, but also a big miss versus a median forecast of 9.3m. Bonds responded logically by extending the moderate AM rally with good volume. 10s ultimately moved down to 4.17% before hitting resistance and traded sideways near that floor for the rest of the day. It is a sign of the times that there was no concerted effort to push yields back in the other direction despite hitting the lowest levels since August.
- ISM Non Manufacturing
- 52.7 vs 52.0 f’cast, 51.8 f’cast
- Job Openings
- 8.733m vs 9.3m f’cast
- last month revised from 9.553 to 9.350
- ISM Non Manufacturing
09:13 AM
Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains at 8:20am CME open. 10yr down 4.4 bps at 4.215. MBS up 3 ticks (.09).
10:30 AM
Additional gains after data. 10yr down 5.8bps at 4.201. MBS up an eighth.
02:03 PM
Generally sideways near best level. 10yr down 8bps at 4.18. MBS up 5 ticks (.16).
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