Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We’ll Be Back on Monday
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:35 PM
While Friday will technically be a half day for the bond market much like other things technically betray their true nature. It’s a courtesy day for market functioning. That left today as the last day of the week. Bonds sold off modestly after the morning econ data, but due to the “end-of-week” trading going on, some of that could also be due to position-squaring among longs (i.e. traders who had been betting on lower rates booking profits and getting neutral until the market comes back to life no earlier than next week). NOTE: there will be no custom alerts or commentary on Friday. The video in today’s recap provides a refresher on setting up custom alerts if you’re working with one of the few lenders that will be actively managing their rate sheets on the half day.
- Consumer Sentiment
- 61.3 vs 60.5 f’cast, 63.8 prev
- 1yr inflation expectations
- 5yr inflation expectations
- Jobless Claims
- 209k vs 225k f’cast, 233k prev
- Continued Claims
- Durable Goods
- -5.4 vs -3.1 f’cast, 4.0 prev
- Core Durable Goods
- -0.1 vs +0.1 f’cast, -0.2 prev
- Consumer Sentiment
10:27 AM
Slightly stronger overnight, but pushing back after data. MBS down an eighth. 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.424.
11:43 AM
MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.420
03:26 PM
Flat after the post-data weakness. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr yields up 2bps at 4.418
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